Bolton South and Walkden
North West · Borough constituency
About the Bolton South and Walkden constituency
Bolton South and Walkden is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Yasmin Qureshi (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.9% to 22.6% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,743 votes on a 46.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.8% and Reform UK on 30.4%, a margin of 1.4 points.
Who lives in Bolton South and Walkden? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bolton South and Walkden vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bolton South and Walkden
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bolton South and Walkden within Bolton and Salford
Bolton South and Walkden crosses council boundaries: Bolton (67%), Salford (33%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 67% | View projection › |
| Salford | 33% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | Rumworth | Ind GAIN from Lab | Other 44% Lab 31% Grn 15% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farnworth North | Labour 41.2%vs Reform 20.2% | May 2026 Labour 29.0%vs Reform 28.4% | Labour share -12.3pp | - |
| Farnworth South | Labour 37.8%vs Reform 21.8% | May 2026 Reform 41.3%vs Others 32.3% | Labour→Reform +22.8pp | - |
| Great Lever | Labour 47.2%vs Reform 19.5% | May 2026 Labour 45.8%vs Green 29.6% | Labour share -1.4pp | - |
| Kearsley | Labour 31.9%vs Reform 25.7% | May 2026 Reform 46.4%vs Others 36.4% | Labour→Reform +22.5pp | - |
| Little Hulton | Labour 36.6%vs Reform 29.7% | May 2026 Reform 43.5%vs Labour 32.4% | Labour→Reform +9.0pp | 27.5% |
| Queens Park & Central | Labour 45.6%vs Green 15.2% | May 2026 Green 35.1%vs Labour 33.6% | Labour→Green +16.0pp | - |
| Rumworth | Labour 48.1%vs Reform 18.3% | May 2026 Green 49.7%vs Labour 35.1% | Labour→Green +27.9pp | - |
| Walkden North | Labour 42.7%vs Reform 23.1% | May 2026 Reform 39.7%vs Labour 31.3% | Labour→Reform +14.0pp | 32.0% |
| Walkden South | Labour 39.2%vs Reform 25.6% | May 2026 Reform 36.0%vs Labour 31.1% | Labour→Reform +9.2pp | 42.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bolton South and Walkden at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bolton South and Walkden at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Yasmin Qureshi Bolton South East MP | 47.4% | 25.6% | 15.9% | 8,634 | 57.0% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Yasmin Qureshi Bolton South East MP | 50.5% | 20.3% | 2.6% | 10,928 | 58.5%+1.5 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Yasmin Qureshi Bolton South East MP | 60.7% | 29.7% | 1.8% | 13,126 | 61.4%+2.9 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Yasmin Qureshi Bolton South East MP, pre-review boundary | 56.6% | 31.7% | 3.9% | 10,929 | 58.1% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Yasmin Qureshi | 40.9% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 6,743 | 46.4%-11.7 |
Bolton South and Walkden was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bolton South East (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Bolton South and Walkden
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bolton South and Walkden. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied50.4 / 52.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.4 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied50.4 / 49.4vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent28.3 / 31.3vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 20.8vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent28.3 / 31.1vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied50.4 / 47.4vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 22.8vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 23.6vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied50.4 / 52.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.4 / 62.7vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied50.4 / 51.9vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 24.3vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.4 / 26.4vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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