Walsall and Bloxwich
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Walsall borough
About the Walsall and Bloxwich constituency
Walsall and Bloxwich is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Valerie Vaz (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 33.6% to 20.4% for other parties, a majority of 4,914 votes on a 49.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.5% and other parties on 20.7%, a margin of 10.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Walsall and Bloxwich? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Walsall and Bloxwich vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Walsall and Bloxwich
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Walsall and Bloxwich within Walsall
Walsall and Bloxwich sits entirely within Walsall Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birchills Leamore | Labour 34.3%vs Reform 21.3% | 2024 Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 34.9% | - | 25.0% |
| Blakenall | Labour 34.6%vs Reform 22.0% | May 2026 Reform 51.8%vs Conservative 24.1%now part of Bloxwich East Blakenall Heath | Labour→Reform +26.0pp | 34.2% |
| Bloxwich East | Labour 33.5%vs Reform 22.9% | May 2026 Reform 51.8%vs Conservative 24.1%now part of Bloxwich East Blakenall Heath | Labour→Reform +24.9pp | 34.2% |
| Bloxwich West | Labour 33.4%vs Reform 23.0% | May 2026 Reform 57.9%vs Conservative 22.2% | Labour→Reform +29.1pp | 38.9% |
| Paddock | Labour 28.1%vs Conservative 26.1% | May 2026 Conservative 29.1%vs Others 23.2% | Labour→Conservative +9.9pp | 49.0% |
| Palfrey | Labour 34.9%vs Others 23.7% | May 2026 Others 58.5%vs Green 15.5%now part of Palfrey The Delves | Labour→Others +41.7pp | 45.1% |
| Pleck | Labour 34.6%vs Others 22.4% | May 2026 Others 43.4%vs Labour 20.8% | Labour→Others +28.6pp | 39.9% |
| St Matthew's | Labour 35.1%vs Others 19.6% | May 2026 Others 43.2%vs Green 18.8% | Labour→Others +32.3pp | 39.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Walsall and Bloxwich at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Walsall and Bloxwich at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Valerie Vaz Walsall South MP | 39.7% | 35.4% | 14.4% | 1,755 | 63.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Valerie Vaz Walsall South MP | 47.2% | 32.8% | 1.6% | 6,007 | 61.8%-1.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Valerie Vaz Walsall South MP | 57.4% | 37.2% | 1.3% | 8,892 | 65.4%+3.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Eddie Hughes Walsall North MP, pre-review boundary | 44.4% | 49.2% | 2.9% | 2,186 | 60.9% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Valerie Vaz | 33.6% | 18.0% | 2.2% | 4,914 | 49.6%-11.3 |
Walsall and Bloxwich was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Walsall South (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Walsall and Bloxwich
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Walsall and Bloxwich. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave67.9 / 68.1vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent31.1 / 31.3vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied47.4 / 49.4vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent31.1 / 28.3vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied47.4 / 50.4vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate22.8 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied47.4 / 52.2vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate22.8 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave67.9 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↑Leave67.9 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.8 / 23.8vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.1 / 27.3vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate22.8 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.1 / 26.7vs 18.0
- ↑Leave67.9 / 61.3vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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