Constituency profile

Wolverhampton South East

West Midlands · Borough constituency

Pat McFadden MP
Sitting MP

Pat McFadden

Labour

First elected May 2005Cabinet: Secretary of State for Work and Pensions

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
68.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +16.2pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +9.5pp
vs Reform UK 33.6%
MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profileDiverse

About the Wolverhampton South East constituency

Wolverhampton South East is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Pat McFadden (Labour), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.3% to 22.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 9,188 votes on a 43.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 43.0% and Reform UK on 33.6%, a margin of 9.5 points.

Who lives in Wolverhampton South East? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
68.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
20.8%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
29.2%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
49.4%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
49.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
36.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
18.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
33.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Wolverhampton South East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 9,188 votes (27.5pp) · turnout 43.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Wolverhampton South East

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Wolverhampton South East within Wolverhampton and Walsall

Wolverhampton South East crosses council boundaries: Wolverhampton (61%), Walsall (39%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Wolverhampton
40 LSOAs
61%View projection ›
Walsall
26 LSOAs
39%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Bentley and Darlaston NorthLabour 46.5%vs Reform 25.7%May 2026 Reform 38.3%vs Others 22.1%
Labour→Reform
+19.7pp
34.5%
Bilston NorthLabour 52.1%vs Reform 20.9%May 2026 Reform 42.4%vs Green 28.4%
Labour→Reform
+26.7pp
35.6%
Bilston SouthLabour 52.1%vs Reform 22.3%May 2026 Reform 45.8%vs Labour 27.5%
Labour→Reform
+24.1pp
29.1%
Darlaston SouthLabour 46.8%vs Reform 27.1%May 2026 Reform 46.9%vs Labour 21.6%
Labour→Reform
+22.5pp
30.7%
East ParkLabour 52.8%vs Reform 21.6%May 2026 Reform 39.8%vs Labour 33.5%
Labour→Reform
+18.7pp
28.3%
Ettingshall NorthLabour 56.2%vs Reform 19.9%May 2026 Labour 38.9%vs Green 25.1%
Labour share
-17.3pp
27.5%
Ettingshall South & Spring ValeLabour 49.5%vs Conservative 21.4%May 2026 Reform 47.2%vs Labour 29.5%
Labour→Reform
+23.5pp
35.9%
St PetersLabour 48.6%vs Reform 15.3%May 2026 Labour 47.8%vs Green 28.2%
Labour share
-0.8pp
26.7%
Willenhall SouthLabour 46.0%vs Reform 25.3%2024 Labour 68.1%vs Conservative 26.6%-23.0%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Wolverhampton South East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Wolverhampton South East at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdPat McFadden47.6%28.6%15.2%7.7% UKIP-1.0%6,59358.0%
2015Lab holdPat McFadden53.3%22.3%2.3%20.3% UKIP1.7%-10,77855.6%-2.4
2017Lab holdPat McFadden58.2%34.8%1.2%4.6% UKIP1.2%-8,51460.2%+4.6
2019notionalLabour winnerPat McFadden 2019 MP, pre-review boundary47.4%41.2%3.8%-1.7%5.9%2,37350.5%-9.7
2024Lab holdPat McFadden50.3%16.9%2.3%22.8% Ref4.9%2.7%9,18843.1%-7.4

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Wolverhampton South East

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Wolverhampton South East. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.