Wolverhampton South East
West Midlands · Borough constituency
About the Wolverhampton South East constituency
Wolverhampton South East is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Pat McFadden (Labour), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.3% to 22.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 9,188 votes on a 43.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 43.0% and Reform UK on 33.6%, a margin of 9.5 points.
Who lives in Wolverhampton South East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Wolverhampton South East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Wolverhampton South East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Wolverhampton South East within Wolverhampton and Walsall
Wolverhampton South East crosses council boundaries: Wolverhampton (61%), Walsall (39%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton | 61% | View projection › |
| Walsall | 39% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bentley and Darlaston North | Labour 46.5%vs Reform 25.7% | May 2026 Reform 38.3%vs Others 22.1% | Labour→Reform +19.7pp | 34.5% |
| Bilston North | Labour 52.1%vs Reform 20.9% | May 2026 Reform 42.4%vs Green 28.4% | Labour→Reform +26.7pp | 35.6% |
| Bilston South | Labour 52.1%vs Reform 22.3% | May 2026 Reform 45.8%vs Labour 27.5% | Labour→Reform +24.1pp | 29.1% |
| Darlaston South | Labour 46.8%vs Reform 27.1% | May 2026 Reform 46.9%vs Labour 21.6% | Labour→Reform +22.5pp | 30.7% |
| East Park | Labour 52.8%vs Reform 21.6% | May 2026 Reform 39.8%vs Labour 33.5% | Labour→Reform +18.7pp | 28.3% |
| Ettingshall North | Labour 56.2%vs Reform 19.9% | May 2026 Labour 38.9%vs Green 25.1% | Labour share -17.3pp | 27.5% |
| Ettingshall South & Spring Vale | Labour 49.5%vs Conservative 21.4% | May 2026 Reform 47.2%vs Labour 29.5% | Labour→Reform +23.5pp | 35.9% |
| St Peters | Labour 48.6%vs Reform 15.3% | May 2026 Labour 47.8%vs Green 28.2% | Labour share -0.8pp | 26.7% |
| Willenhall South | Labour 46.0%vs Reform 25.3% | 2024 Labour 68.1%vs Conservative 26.6% | - | 23.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Wolverhampton South East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Wolverhampton South East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Pat McFadden | 47.6% | 28.6% | 15.2% | 6,593 | 58.0% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Pat McFadden | 53.3% | 22.3% | 2.3% | 10,778 | 55.6%-2.4 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Pat McFadden | 58.2% | 34.8% | 1.2% | 8,514 | 60.2%+4.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Pat McFadden 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 47.4% | 41.2% | 3.8% | 2,373 | 50.5%-9.7 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Pat McFadden | 50.3% | 16.9% | 2.3% | 9,188 | 43.1%-7.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Wolverhampton South East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Wolverhampton South East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave68.1 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent31.3 / 32.9vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 18.9vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied49.4 / 50.4vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent31.3 / 28.3vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave68.1 / 67.9vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent31.3 / 31.1vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied49.4 / 47.4vs 61.9
- ↓Owner-occupied49.4 / 52.2vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave68.1 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied49.4 / 51.9vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 24.3vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.2 / 26.4vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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