Tipton and Wednesbury
West Midlands · Borough constituency
About the Tipton and Wednesbury constituency
Tipton and Wednesbury is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Antonia Bance (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.9% to 26.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,385 votes on a 43.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 35.7% and Labour on 30.0%, a margin of 5.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Tipton and Wednesbury? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Tipton and Wednesbury vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Tipton and Wednesbury
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Tipton and Wednesbury within Sandwell and Dudley
Tipton and Wednesbury crosses council boundaries: Sandwell (88%), Dudley (12%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Sandwell | 88% | View projection › |
| Dudley | 12% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coseley | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 28.2% | May 2026 Reform 55.4%vs Labour 20.7% | Labour→Reform +23.8pp | 35.6% |
| Friar Park | Labour 37.6%vs Conservative 28.6% | May 2026 Reform 54.2%vs Labour 24.5%now part of Friar Park Stone Cross | Labour→Reform +21.4pp | 31.7% |
| Great Bridge | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 27.5% | May 2026 Reform 46.4%vs Labour 23.8% | Labour→Reform +15.4pp | 32.5% |
| Hateley Heath | Labour 37.9%vs Reform 24.7% | May 2026 Labour 41.3%vs Reform 38.6% | Labour share +3.5pp | 32.3% |
| Princes End | Labour 32.3%vs Reform 30.3% | May 2026 Reform 54.3%vs Labour 20.8% | Labour→Reform +17.8pp | 29.1% |
| Tipton Green | Labour 37.5%vs Reform 27.8% | May 2026 Reform 35.5%vs Labour 28.9% | Labour→Reform +8.1pp | - |
| Wednesbury North | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 27.3% | 2024 Labour 41.6%vs Conservative 20.7% | - | 27.0% |
| Wednesbury South | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2024 Labour 59.8%vs Conservative 23.7% | - | 26.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Tipton and Wednesbury at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Tipton and Wednesbury at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Adrian Bailey West Bromwich West MP | 45.0% | 29.3% | 12.0% | 5,651 | 55.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Adrian Bailey West Bromwich West MP | 47.3% | 23.9% | 1.6% | 7,742 | 53.5%-2.3 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Adrian Bailey West Bromwich West MP | 52.1% | 39.7% | 0.9% | 4,460 | 54.7%+1.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Shaun Bailey West Bromwich West MP, pre-review boundary | 38.4% | 50.7% | 3.1% | 4,693 | 51.7% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Antonia Bance | 36.9% | 26.3% | 1.9% | 3,385 | 43.0%-8.7 |
Tipton and Wednesbury was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat West Bromwich West (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Tipton and Wednesbury
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Tipton and Wednesbury. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave68.3 / 68.1vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent32.9 / 31.3vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate18.9 / 20.8vs 33.7
- ↑Leave68.3 / 67.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.9 / 21.8vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent32.9 / 27.8vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied51.0 / 50.4vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent32.9 / 28.3vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate18.9 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent32.9 / 26.5vs 16.8
- ↑Leave68.3 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.9 / 25.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave68.3 / 70.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.9 / 22.7vs 33.7
- ↑No quals31.0 / 25.8vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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