Dudley
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Dudley borough
About the Dudley constituency
Dudley is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Sonia Kumar (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.1% to 28.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,900 votes on a 51.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.9% and the Conservatives on 27.3%, a margin of 11.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Dudley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Dudley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Dudley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Dudley within Dudley
Dudley sits entirely within Dudley Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Dudley | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brockmoor & Pensnett | Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 27.2% | May 2026 Reform 47.2%vs Others 23.7% | Labour→Reform +21.6pp | 31.2% |
| Castle & Priory | Labour 38.6%vs Reform 27.5% | May 2026 Reform 48.0%vs Labour 21.5% | Labour→Reform +18.8pp | 33.5% |
| Gornal | Conservative 37.4%vs Labour 29.4% | May 2026 Reform 60.2%vs Conservative 20.3% | Conservative→Reform +27.5pp | 42.4% |
| Sedgley | Conservative 34.7%vs Reform 29.0% | May 2026 Reform 55.9%vs Conservative 21.0% | Conservative→Reform +20.3pp | 45.0% |
| St. James's | Labour 33.9%vs Reform 28.1% | May 2026 Reform 48.9%vs Labour 21.8% | Labour→Reform +16.5pp | 32.9% |
| St. Thomas's | Labour 41.8%vs Reform 24.5% | May 2026 Labour 37.1%vs Reform 32.1% | Labour share -4.6pp | 35.8% |
| Upper Gornal & Woodsetton | Labour 32.2%vs Conservative 29.0% | May 2026 Reform 64.9%vs Labour 13.0% | Labour→Reform +28.3pp | 39.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Dudley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Dudley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Ian Austin Dudley North MP | 38.7% | 37.0% | 10.5% | 649 | 63.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Ian Austin Dudley North MP | 41.8% | 30.8% | 1.3% | 4,181 | 62.6%-0.9 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Ian Austin Dudley North MP | 46.5% | 46.4% | 0.9% | 22 | 62.7%+0.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Marco Longhi Dudley North MP, pre-review boundary | 30.9% | 63.2% | 3.8% | 13,609 | 59.4% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Sonia Kumar | 34.1% | 28.8% | 3.0% | 1,900 | 51.0%-8.4 |
Dudley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Dudley North (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Dudley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dudley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave70.9 / 66.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.7 / 22.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.8 / 25.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.9 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.7 / 21.5vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent24.9 / 26.2vs 16.8
- ↑Leave70.9 / 67.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.7 / 21.8vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.8 / 26.7vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.9 / 72.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.7 / 20.8vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.8 / 26.2vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate22.7 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave70.9 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent24.9 / 22.5vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.