Stoke-on-Trent North
West Midlands · Borough constituency
About the Stoke-on-Trent North constituency
Stoke-on-Trent North is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is David Williams (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.3% to 26.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,082 votes on a 51.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.8% and Labour on 34.2%, a margin of 0.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Stoke-on-Trent North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stoke-on-Trent North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stoke-on-Trent North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stoke-on-Trent North within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme
Stoke-on-Trent North crosses council boundaries: Stoke-on-Trent (73%), Newcastle-under-Lyme (27%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke-on-Trent | 73% | — |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | 27% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baddeley, Milton & Norton | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2023 Conservative 47.6%vs Labour 44.2% | - | 28.4% |
| Bradeley & Chell Heath | Labour 45.2%vs Reform 24.6% | 2023 Labour 79.1%vs Conservative 12.6% | - | 23.7% |
| Burslem | Labour 50.1%vs Reform 21.8% | 2023 Labour 75.4%vs Conservative 24.6% | - | 20.2% |
| Burslem Park | Labour 43.9%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Labour 61.5%vs Conservative 38.5% | - | 25.4% |
| Ford Green & Smallthorne | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 24.0% | 2023 Labour 68.1%vs Conservative 31.9% | - | 23.4% |
| Goldenhill & Sandyford | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Conservative 71.4%vs Labour 22.0% | - | 25.4% |
| Great Chell & Packmoor | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2023 Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 30.7% | - | 23.4% |
| Kidsgrove & Ravenscliffe | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 28.2% | May 2026 Reform 56.5%vs Labour 21.9% | Labour→Reform +21.3pp | 35.0% |
| Little Chell & Stanfield | Labour 46.4%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2023 Labour 57.3%vs Conservative 28.4% | - | 26.4% |
| Moorcroft & Sneyd Green | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2023 Labour 48.1%vs Others 26.0% | - | 30.0% |
| Newchapel & Mow Cop | Labour 32.3%vs Reform 30.6% | May 2026 Reform 53.1%vs Labour 20.8% | Labour→Reform +17.0pp | 41.2% |
| Talke & Butt Lane | Labour 39.9%vs Reform 28.3% | May 2026 Reform 55.9%vs Labour 31.6% | Labour→Reform +18.0pp | 35.2% |
| Tunstall | Labour 44.6%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2023 Conservative 45.8%vs Labour 27.6% | - | 28.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stoke-on-Trent North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stoke-on-Trent North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Joan Walley | 44.3% | 23.8% | 17.7% | 8,235 | 55.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Ruth Smeeth | 39.9% | 27.4% | 2.9% | 4,836 | 54.1%-1.7 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Ruth Smeeth | 50.9% | 45.3% | 2.2% | 2,359 | 58.4%+4.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jonathan Gullis 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 34.8% | 54.1% | 3.3% | 8,077 | 59.9%+1.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | David Williams | 40.3% | 26.3% | 2.5% | 5,082 | 51.8%-8.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stoke-on-Trent North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stoke-on-Trent North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave72.1 / 68.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 21.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 23.4vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.1 / 73.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 22.3vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 22.5vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.1 / 70.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 24.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.1 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 21.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 26.1vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.1 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 24.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 24.2vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.