Stoke-on-Trent North
West Midlands · Borough constituency
About the Stoke-on-Trent North constituency
Stoke-on-Trent North is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is David Williams (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.3% to 26.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,082 votes on a 51.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 37.2% and Labour on 32.9%, a margin of 4.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Stoke-on-Trent North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stoke-on-Trent North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stoke-on-Trent North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stoke-on-Trent North within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme
Stoke-on-Trent North crosses council boundaries: Stoke-on-Trent (73%), Newcastle-under-Lyme (27%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent ward result with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke-on-Trent | 73% | - |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | 27% | 2026 result › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baddeley, Milton & Norton | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2023 Conservative 47.6%vs Labour 44.2% | - | 28.4% |
| Bradeley & Chell Heath | Labour 45.2%vs Reform 24.6% | 2023 Labour 79.1%vs Conservative 12.6% | - | 23.7% |
| Burslem | Labour 50.1%vs Reform 21.8% | 2023 Labour 75.4%vs Conservative 24.6% | - | 20.2% |
| Burslem Park | Labour 43.9%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Labour 61.5%vs Conservative 38.5% | - | 25.4% |
| Ford Green & Smallthorne | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 24.0% | 2023 Labour 68.1%vs Conservative 31.9% | - | 23.4% |
| Goldenhill & Sandyford | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Conservative 71.4%vs Labour 22.0% | - | 25.4% |
| Great Chell & Packmoor | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2023 Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 30.7% | - | 23.4% |
| Kidsgrove & Ravenscliffe | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 28.2% | May 2026 Reform 56.5%vs Labour 21.9% | Labour→Reform +21.3pp | 35.0% |
| Little Chell & Stanfield | Labour 46.4%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2023 Labour 57.3%vs Conservative 28.4% | - | 26.4% |
| Moorcroft & Sneyd Green | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2023 Labour 48.1%vs Others 26.0% | - | 30.0% |
| Newchapel & Mow Cop | Labour 32.3%vs Reform 30.6% | May 2026 Reform 53.1%vs Labour 20.8% | Labour→Reform +17.0pp | 41.2% |
| Talke & Butt Lane | Labour 39.9%vs Reform 28.3% | May 2026 Reform 55.9%vs Labour 31.6% | Labour→Reform +18.0pp | 35.2% |
| Tunstall | Labour 44.6%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2023 Conservative 45.8%vs Labour 27.6% | - | 28.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stoke-on-Trent North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stoke-on-Trent North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Joan Walley | 44.3% | 23.8% | 17.7% | 8,235 | 55.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Ruth Smeeth | 39.9% | 27.4% | 2.9% | 4,836 | 54.1%-1.7 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Ruth Smeeth | 50.9% | 45.3% | 2.2% | 2,359 | 58.4%+4.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jonathan Gullis 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 34.8% | 54.1% | 3.3% | 8,077 | 59.9%+1.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | David Williams | 40.3% | 26.3% | 2.5% | 5,082 | 51.8%-8.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stoke-on-Trent North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stoke-on-Trent North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave72.1 / 68.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 21.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 23.4vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.1 / 73.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 22.3vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 22.5vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.1 / 70.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 24.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.1 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 21.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 26.1vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.1 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 24.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 24.2vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.