South Basildon and East Thurrock
East of England · County constituency
About the South Basildon and East Thurrock constituency
South Basildon and East Thurrock is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is James McMurdock (Independent), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Reform UK won with 30.8% to 30.5% for Labour, a majority of 98 votes on a 54.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 48.1% and Labour on 20.2%, a margin of 27.9 points.
Who lives in South Basildon and East Thurrock? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South Basildon and East Thurrock vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South Basildon and East Thurrock
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South Basildon and East Thurrock within Thurrock and Basildon
South Basildon and East Thurrock crosses council boundaries: Thurrock (53%), Basildon (47%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Thurrock | 53% | View projection › |
| Basildon | 47% | View projection › |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pitsea | Ref | Ref 47% Lab 27% Con 14% | 33.8% |
| Vange | Ref | Ref 43% Lab 31% Grn 9% | 31.0% |
| Westley Heights | Other | Other 39% Ref 31% Con 10% | 43.0% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chadwell St Mary | Labour 37.9%vs Reform 30.9% | May 2026 Reform 57.9%vs Labour 25.9% | Labour→Reform +19.5pp | - |
| Corringham and Fobbing | Reform 31.8%vs Labour 28.5% | May 2026 Reform 66.7%vs Labour 16.5% | Reform share +34.9pp | - |
| East Tilbury | Reform 32.7%vs Labour 27.8% | May 2026 Reform 60.1%vs Labour 16.6%now part of East Tilbury Linford West Tilbury | Reform share +27.4pp | - |
| Langdon Hills | Conservative 30.8%vs Reform 29.6% | May 2026 Reform 35.0%vs Others 32.9% | Conservative→Reform +12.1pp | 45.0% |
| Nethermayne | Reform 34.3%vs Labour 29.1% | May 2026 Reform 39.0%vs Others 24.2% | Reform share +4.7pp | 33.4% |
| Orsett | Conservative 37.7%vs Reform 27.6% | May 2026 Reform 57.0%vs Conservative 21.1%now part of Orsett Horndon Bulphan | Conservative→Reform +22.9pp | - |
| Pitsea North West | Labour 36.9%vs Reform 30.2% | May 2026 Reform 47.7%vs Labour 29.0% | Labour→Reform +12.7pp | 33.3% |
| Pitsea South East | Labour 33.9%vs Reform 28.0% | May 2026 Reform 47.2%vs Labour 23.0% | Labour→Reform +15.0pp | 36.7% |
| Stanford East and Corringham Town | Reform 31.1%vs Labour 30.5% | 2024 Independent 41.3%vs Labour 39.2% | - | 31.2% |
| Stanford-le-Hope West | Reform 34.2%vs Labour 29.1% | 2024 Independent 43.6%vs Labour 36.1% | - | 26.6% |
| The Homesteads | Conservative 30.7%vs Labour 28.8% | May 2026 Reform 54.8%vs Labour 13.7%now part of The Homesteads Stanford Le Hope North | Conservative→Reform +22.7pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South Basildon and East Thurrock at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South Basildon and East Thurrock at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Stephen Metcalfe | 31.0% | 43.9% | 13.4% | 5,772 | 62.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Stephen Metcalfe | 25.2% | 43.4% | 3.0% | 7,691 | 64.1%+1.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Stephen Metcalfe | 32.5% | 56.9% | 1.6% | 11,490 | 64.1%+0.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Stephen Metcalfe 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 23.6% | 65.4% | 4.1% | 18,731 | 61.0%-3.1 |
| 2024 | RUK gain from Con | James McMurdock | 30.5% | 25.7% | 2.7% | 98 | 54.4%-6.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South Basildon and East Thurrock
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Basildon and East Thurrock. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave73.0 / 67.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 25.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.0 / 13.0vs 20.2
- ↑Leave73.0 / 72.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 20.8vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.5 / 26.2vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 24.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave73.0 / 63.9vs 53.2
- ↑No quals22.5 / 20.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave73.0 / 65.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 25.0vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.0 / 14.2vs 20.2
- ↑Leave73.0 / 68.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 21.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.5 / 23.4vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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