Basildon and Billericay
East of England · Borough constituency · Basildon borough
About the Basildon and Billericay constituency
Basildon and Billericay is a borough constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Mr Richard Holden (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 30.6% to 30.6% for Labour, a majority of 20 votes on a 54.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 43.9% and the Conservatives on 22.7%, a margin of 21.2 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Basildon and Billericay? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Basildon and Billericay vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Basildon and Billericay
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Basildon and Billericay within Basildon
Basildon and Billericay sits entirely within Basildon Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. In addition, the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Basildon | 100% | View projection › |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billericay North | Con | Con 48% Ref 30% Grn 10% | 53.6% |
| Burstead | Con | Con 43% Ref 37% Lab 8% | 50.5% |
| Gloucester Park | Ref | Ref 41% Lab 34% Con 13% | 34.7% |
| Laindon Town | Ref | Ref 44% Lab 26% Con 16% | 34.3% |
| Wickford East & Bowers Gifford | Ref | Ref 48% Con 31% Grn 9% | 45.1% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billericay East | Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 25.1% | May 2026 Conservative 44.9%vs Reform 31.9% | Conservative share +3.9pp | 54.8% |
| Billericay West | Conservative 37.6%vs Reform 25.8% | May 2026 Conservative 50.7%vs Reform 28.7% | Conservative share +13.1pp | 53.2% |
| Burstead | Conservative 39.7%vs Reform 26.0% | May 2026 Conservative 45.1%vs Reform 37.0% | Conservative share +5.4pp | 52.8% |
| Castledon & Crouch | Conservative 36.0%vs Reform 26.5% | May 2026 Reform 50.5%vs Conservative 24.4% | Conservative→Reform +17.8pp | 49.8% |
| Fryerns | Labour 37.8%vs Reform 28.1% | May 2026 Reform 44.4%vs Labour 33.0% | Labour→Reform +10.5pp | 34.0% |
| Laindon Park | Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 28.2% | May 2026 Reform 46.5%vs Labour 22.3% | Labour→Reform +16.0pp | 36.5% |
| Lee Chapel North | Labour 38.0%vs Reform 27.0% | May 2026 Reform 43.2%vs Labour 32.7% | Labour→Reform +10.7pp | 32.8% |
| Nethermayne | Reform 34.3%vs Labour 29.1% | May 2026 Reform 39.0%vs Others 24.2% | Reform share +4.7pp | 33.4% |
| Pitsea South East | Labour 33.9%vs Reform 28.0% | May 2026 Reform 47.2%vs Labour 23.0% | Labour→Reform +15.0pp | 36.7% |
| St Martin's | Labour 36.9%vs Reform 31.4% | May 2026 Reform 40.9%vs Labour 36.2% | Labour→Reform +5.1pp | 32.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Basildon and Billericay at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Basildon and Billericay at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | John Baron | 23.1% | 52.7% | 15.7% | 12,338 | 63.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | John Baron | 23.7% | 52.7% | 3.8% | 12,482 | 64.9%+1.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | John Baron | 31.1% | 61.0% | 3.4% | 13,400 | 65.0%+0.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | John Baron 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 21.6% | 65.9% | 8.4% | 20,749 | 60.9%-4.1 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Richard Holden | 30.6% | 30.6% | 5.4% | 20 | 54.8%-6.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Basildon and Billericay
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Basildon and Billericay. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave67.1 / 67.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.6 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent24.0 / 26.0vs 16.8
- ↑Leave67.1 / 73.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.6 / 22.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.0 / 15.0vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent24.0 / 23.4vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate25.6 / 27.0vs 33.7
- ↑Leave67.1 / 59.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.6 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave67.1 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent24.0 / 21.0vs 16.8
- ↑Leave67.1 / 61.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.6 / 27.1vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.0 / 13.9vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.