Harlow
East of England · County constituency
About the Harlow constituency
Harlow is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Chris Vince (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 37.6% to 31.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,504 votes on a 58.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 36.3% and the Conservatives on 27.3%, a margin of 8.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Harlow? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Harlow vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Harlow
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Harlow within Harlow and Epping Forest and 1 other council
Harlow crosses council boundaries: Harlow (85%), Epping Forest (9%), Uttlesford (6%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Harlow | 85% | View projection › |
| Epping Forest | 9% | View projection › |
| Uttlesford | 6% | — |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harlow Common & Church Langley | Con | Con 55% Ref 24% Lab 11% | 42.8% |
| Harlow Netteswell | Con | Con 45% Ref 23% Lab 17% | 38.3% |
| Harlow Parndon & Toddbrook | Con | Con 42% Ref 23% Lab 21% | 36.9% |
| Harlow South West | Con | Con 61% Ref 17% Lab 12% | 40.7% |
| Old Harlow | Con | Con 54% Ref 26% Lab 10% | 43.8% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Oak & the Hallingburys | Conservative 41.6%vs Labour 34.9% | 2023 Others 53.3%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 40.3% |
| Bush Fair | Labour 43.6%vs Conservative 28.2% | May 2026 Conservative 52.2%vs Reform 23.5% | Labour→Conservative +26.6pp | 39.0% |
| Church Langley North & Newhall | Conservative 37.4%vs Labour 32.4% | May 2026 Conservative 65.4%vs Reform 19.5% | Conservative share +28.0pp | 44.3% |
| Church Langley South & Potter Street | Conservative 37.4%vs Labour 32.4% | May 2026 Conservative 58.8%vs Reform 22.7% | Conservative share +21.3pp | 42.5% |
| Great Parndon | Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 31.6% | May 2026 Conservative 65.2%vs Reform 17.9% | Labour→Conservative +29.1pp | 44.4% |
| Hatfield Heath | Conservative 40.5%vs Labour 26.6% | 2023 Conservative 71.8%vs Others 28.2% | - | 31.9% |
| Mark Hall | Labour 43.5%vs Conservative 27.8% | May 2026 Conservative 50.5%vs Reform 19.7% | Labour→Conservative +25.4pp | 40.3% |
| Netteswell | Labour 43.5%vs Conservative 26.9% | May 2026 Conservative 49.5%vs Reform 19.9% | Labour→Conservative +24.1pp | 35.0% |
| Old Harlow | Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 33.6% | May 2026 Conservative 61.2%vs Reform 21.2% | Conservative share +26.8pp | 44.8% |
| Roydon & Lower Nazeing | Conservative 44.3%vs Labour 29.1% | May 2026 Reform 47.3%vs Conservative 37.3% | Conservative→Reform +18.3pp | 43.4% |
| Sumners & Kingsmoor | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 29.7% | May 2026 Conservative 62.0%vs Reform 18.6% | Labour→Conservative +29.3pp | 41.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Harlow at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Harlow at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Robert Halfon | 33.7% | 44.9% | 13.7% | 4,925 | 64.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Robert Halfon | 30.0% | 48.9% | 2.0% | 8,350 | 65.1%+0.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Robert Halfon | 38.4% | 54.0% | 2.2% | 7,031 | 66.2%+1.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Robert Halfon 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 29.3% | 64.6% | 5.9% | 16,694 | 64.5%-1.7 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Chris Vince | 37.6% | 31.8% | 3.1% | 2,504 | 58.1%-6.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Harlow
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Harlow. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave67.7 / 67.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.4 / 25.6vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent26.0 / 24.0vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate25.4 / 27.0vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent26.0 / 23.4vs 16.8
- ↑Leave67.7 / 59.8vs 53.2
- ↑Leave67.7 / 73.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.4 / 22.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.2 / 15.0vs 20.2
- ↑Leave67.7 / 66.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.4 / 24.1vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied57.3 / 56.6vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent26.0 / 24.9vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent15.2 / 14.9vs 20.2
- ↑Employed62.4 / 63.4vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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