Stevenage
East of England · County constituency
About the Stevenage constituency
Stevenage is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Kevin Bonavia (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.4% to 25.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,618 votes on a 60.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 33.6% and Labour on 31.4%, a margin of 2.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Stevenage? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stevenage vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stevenage
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stevenage within Stevenage and North Hertfordshire and 1 other council
Stevenage crosses council boundaries: Stevenage (90%), North Hertfordshire (8%), East Hertfordshire (2%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 90% | View projection › |
| North Hertfordshire | 8% | — |
| East Hertfordshire | 2% | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston, Datchworth & Walkern | Conservative 35.7%vs Labour 35.5% | 2023 Conservative 57.6%vs Labour 17.9% | - | 38.0% |
| Bandley Hill & Poplars | Labour 41.6%vs Conservative 25.6% | May 2026 Reform 40.3%vs Labour 21.7% | Labour→Reform +20.7pp | - |
| Bedwell | Labour 46.9%vs Conservative 20.6% | May 2026 Labour 34.6%vs Reform 32.5% | Labour share -12.3pp | - |
| Chells | Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 22.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 35.3%vs Reform 32.8% | Labour→Lib Dem +25.8pp | - |
| Codicote & Kimpton | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 32.3% | 2024 Conservative 49.2%vs Labour 26.8% | - | - |
| Knebworth | Conservative 35.1%vs Labour 25.6% | 2024 Lib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 34.5% | - | - |
| Longmeadow | Labour 39.5%vs Conservative 30.5% | May 2026 Reform 37.3%vs Conservative 23.9% | Labour→Reform +21.2pp | - |
| Manor | Labour 33.1%vs Conservative 22.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 42.0%vs Reform 32.4% | Labour→Lib Dem +24.0pp | - |
| Martins Wood | Labour 42.7%vs Conservative 22.5% | May 2026 Reform 41.9%vs Labour 23.1% | Labour→Reform +21.5pp | - |
| Old Town | Labour 45.5%vs Conservative 26.4% | May 2026 Labour 30.4%vs Others 29.1% | Labour share -15.1pp | - |
| Roebuck | Labour 43.8%vs Conservative 25.4% | May 2026 Reform 38.0%vs Labour 23.2% | Labour→Reform +19.9pp | - |
| Shephall | Labour 45.8%vs Conservative 22.5% | May 2026 Reform 39.4%vs Labour 29.7% | Labour→Reform +18.4pp | - |
| St Nicholas | Labour 46.0%vs Conservative 22.9% | May 2026 Labour 32.8%vs Reform 32.2% | Labour share -13.2pp | - |
| Symonds Green | Labour 47.6%vs Conservative 24.2% | May 2026 Reform 39.3%vs Labour 20.2% | Labour→Reform +24.5pp | - |
| Woodfield | Labour 37.6%vs Conservative 31.7% | May 2026 Reform 31.9%vs Conservative 25.8% | Labour→Reform +15.8pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stevenage at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stevenage at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Stephen McPartland | 33.4% | 41.4% | 16.6% | 3,578 | 64.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Stephen McPartland | 34.2% | 44.5% | 3.3% | 4,955 | 67.7%+2.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Stephen McPartland | 43.4% | 50.3% | 4.1% | 3,386 | 69.7%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Stephen McPartland 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 35.2% | 53.1% | 8.7% | 8,562 | 67.8%-1.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Kevin Bonavia | 41.4% | 25.9% | 8.1% | 6,618 | 60.2%-7.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stevenage
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stevenage. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Social rent24.9 / 25.2vs 16.8
- ↑Employed63.4 / 62.9vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent14.9 / 15.1vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.4 / 65.5vs 57.3
- ↑Social rent24.9 / 20.6vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.9 / 17.1vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent14.9 / 16.6vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent24.9 / 19.8vs 16.8
- ↑Employed63.4 / 59.7vs 57.3
- ↑Social rent24.9 / 23.4vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.9 / 16.1vs 20.2
- ↑Employed63.4 / 66.5vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent14.9 / 15.9vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.