Hemel Hempstead
East of England · County constituency · Dacorum borough
About the Hemel Hempstead constituency
Hemel Hempstead is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is David Taylor (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.2% to 27.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,857 votes on a 62.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 30.7% and Labour on 25.0%, a margin of 5.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Hemel Hempstead? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hemel Hempstead vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hemel Hempstead
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hemel Hempstead within Dacorum
Hemel Hempstead sits entirely within Dacorum Council. Dacorum was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Dacorum | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | Apsley & Corner Hall | LD HOLD | LD 33% Ref 24% Con 18% |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Bennetts End | Lab GAIN from Ind | — |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Hemel Hempstead Town | Con GAIN from LD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adeyfield East | Labour 41.9%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Conservative 42.0%vs Labour 40.6% | - | 25.2% |
| Adeyfield West | Labour 34.8%vs Reform 20.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.3%vs Labour 19.7% | - | 25.6% |
| Apsley and Corner Hall | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.4%vs Conservative 31.8% | - | 28.8% |
| Bennetts End | Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 22.3% | 2023 Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 27.3% | - | 36.5% |
| Bovingdon, Flaunden and Chipperfield | Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 31.0% | 2023 Conservative 51.5%vs Lib Dem 23.9% | - | 39.8% |
| Boxmoor | Labour 32.7%vs Conservative 24.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 65.6%vs Conservative 23.4% | - | 37.7% |
| Chaulden and Warners End | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2023 Conservative 48.2%vs Lib Dem 26.6% | - | 33.2% |
| Gadebridge | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2023 Conservative 37.4%vs Labour 37.2% | - | 29.4% |
| Grovehill | Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2023 Conservative 49.8%vs Labour 33.8% | - | 27.8% |
| Hemel Hempstead Town | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.5%vs Labour 27.5% | - | 26.8% |
| Highfield | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 21.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.8%vs Labour 25.1% | - | 22.8% |
| Leverstock Green | Labour 36.5%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.6%vs Conservative 39.2% | - | 34.7% |
| Nash Mills | Labour 33.2%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Independent 65.7%vs Conservative 16.9% | - | 32.7% |
| Woodhall Farm | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2023 Conservative 54.0%vs Labour 26.7% | - | 25.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hemel Hempstead at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hemel Hempstead at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Mike Penning | 20.8% | 50.0% | 22.9% | 13,406 | 68.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Mike Penning | 23.8% | 52.9% | 4.8% | 14,420 | 66.5%-1.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mike Penning | 36.9% | 55.0% | 6.2% | 9,445 | 70.3%+3.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mike Penning 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 28.1% | 55.0% | 11.4% | 13,161 | 69.6%-0.7 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | David Taylor | 38.2% | 27.2% | 11.6% | 4,857 | 62.1%-7.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Hemel Hempstead
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hemel Hempstead. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Social rent25.2 / 24.9vs 16.8
- ↑Employed62.9 / 63.4vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 14.9vs 20.2
- ↑Employed62.9 / 65.5vs 57.3
- ↑Social rent25.2 / 20.6vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 17.1vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent25.2 / 26.4vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 16.6vs 20.2
- ↑Employed62.9 / 59.8vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 16.6vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent25.2 / 19.8vs 16.8
- ↑Employed62.9 / 59.7vs 57.3
- ↑Employed62.9 / 66.5vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 15.9vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.