Basingstoke
South East · Borough constituency · Basingstoke and Deane borough
About the Basingstoke constituency
Basingstoke is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Luke Murphy (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.7% to 29.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,484 votes on a 62.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 33.5% and Reform UK on 25.1%, a margin of 8.5 points.
Who lives in Basingstoke? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Basingstoke vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Basingstoke
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Basingstoke within Basingstoke and Deane
Basingstoke sits entirely within Basingstoke and Deane Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Basingstoke and Deane | 100% | View projection › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Basingstoke Central | Ref | Ref 28% Lab 23% Con 20% | 39.0% |
| Basingstoke North | Lab | Lab 34% Ref 29% Grn 16% | 32.2% |
| Basingstoke North West | Ref | Ref 31% Con 25% Lab 23% | 36.5% |
| Basingstoke South East | LD | LD 35% Ref 26% Lab 14% | 41.1% |
| Basingstoke South West | Con | Con 29% Ref 27% The All In Party 17% | 45.7% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton Hill | Labour 45.4%vs Conservative 23.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 36.9%vs Reform 32.7% | Labour→Lib Dem +30.8pp | 39.2% |
| Brookvale & Kings Furlong | Labour 44.6%vs Conservative 26.8% | May 2026 Labour 27.1%vs Conservative 20.0% | Labour share -17.5pp | 40.7% |
| Chineham | Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 36.0% | May 2026 Green 31.8%vs Reform 26.4% | Conservative→Green +17.1pp | 42.4% |
| Eastrop & Grove | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 26.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 47.8%vs Reform 24.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +31.5pp | 44.1% |
| Hatch Warren & Beggarwood | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 33.4% | May 2026 Others 29.7%vs Conservative 28.7% | Labour→Others +29.1pp | 44.1% |
| Kempshott & Buckskin | Labour 42.8%vs Conservative 35.3% | May 2026 Conservative 29.1%vs Reform 29.0% | Labour→Conservative +12.3pp | 42.6% |
| Norden | Labour 45.9%vs Conservative 23.2% | May 2026 Others 48.5%vs Reform 20.0% | Labour→Others +39.8pp | 36.6% |
| Oakley & The Candovers | Conservative 40.9%vs Labour 27.5% | May 2026 Others 37.2%vs Conservative 24.2% | Conservative→Others +27.0pp | 48.7% |
| Popley | Labour 52.0%vs Conservative 21.1% | May 2026 Labour 38.8%vs Reform 30.1% | Labour share -13.3pp | 34.9% |
| South Ham | Labour 49.2%vs Conservative 25.0% | May 2026 Reform 34.0%vs Labour 22.0% | Labour→Reform +24.0pp | 34.0% |
| Winklebury & Manydown | Labour 47.2%vs Conservative 29.6% | May 2026 Reform 27.3%vs Others 25.1% | Labour→Reform +19.9pp | 40.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Basingstoke at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Basingstoke at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Maria Miller | 20.4% | 50.5% | 24.5% | 13,176 | 67.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Maria Miller | 27.7% | 48.6% | 7.4% | 11,063 | 66.6%-0.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Maria Miller | 35.8% | 52.7% | 6.1% | 9,466 | 68.3%+1.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Maria Miller 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 28.7% | 52.7% | 13.3% | 12,301 | 66.4%-1.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Luke Murphy | 42.7% | 29.5% | 6.5% | 6,484 | 62.4%-4.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Basingstoke
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Basingstoke. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed65.5 / 66.5vs 57.3
- ↑Employed65.5 / 62.9vs 57.3
- ↑Employed65.5 / 63.4vs 57.3
- ↑Employed65.5 / 60.7vs 57.3
- ↑Employed65.5 / 60.2vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.