Welwyn Hatfield
East of England · County constituency · Welwyn Hatfield borough
About the Welwyn Hatfield constituency
Welwyn Hatfield is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Andrew Lewin (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.0% to 33.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,799 votes on a 64.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 29.2% and Reform UK on 25.3%, a margin of 3.9 points.
Who lives in Welwyn Hatfield? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Welwyn Hatfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Welwyn Hatfield
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Welwyn Hatfield within Welwyn Hatfield
Welwyn Hatfield sits entirely within Welwyn Hatfield Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Welwyn Hatfield | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brookmans Park and Little Heath | Conservative 49.0%vs Labour 28.3% | May 2026 Conservative 45.9%vs Reform 27.3% | Conservative share -3.1pp | 48.7% |
| Haldens | Labour 46.8%vs Conservative 29.2% | May 2026 Reform 28.9%vs Labour 23.5% | Labour→Reform +19.4pp | 44.4% |
| Handside | Conservative 38.2%vs Labour 32.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 47.8%vs Reform 19.4% | Conservative→Lib Dem +29.2pp | 52.0% |
| Hatfield Central | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 27.0% | May 2026 Reform 33.3%vs Labour 28.8% | Labour→Reform +18.9pp | 31.2% |
| Hatfield East | Labour 46.0%vs Conservative 30.3% | May 2026 Labour 24.8%vs Reform 23.2% | Labour share -21.2pp | 38.6% |
| Hatfield South West | Labour 45.9%vs Conservative 26.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 32.5%vs Reform 26.9% | Labour→Lib Dem +28.8pp | 30.9% |
| Hatfield Villages | Labour 44.8%vs Conservative 30.5% | May 2026 Labour 30.2%vs Reform 26.4% | Labour share -14.6pp | 33.5% |
| Hollybush | Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 27.2% | May 2026 Reform 33.1%vs Labour 31.5% | Labour→Reform +19.0pp | 35.5% |
| Howlands | Labour 48.6%vs Conservative 29.5% | May 2026 Labour 35.6%vs Reform 34.7% | Labour share -13.1pp | 40.7% |
| Panshanger | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 33.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 34.2%vs Reform 32.9% | Labour→Lib Dem +27.0pp | 43.9% |
| Peartree | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 23.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.9%vs Reform 27.7% | Labour→Lib Dem +33.2pp | 31.5% |
| Sherrards | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 33.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.3%vs Reform 21.8% | Labour→Lib Dem +32.8pp | 50.8% |
| Welham Green and Hatfield South | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 34.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 33.7%vs Reform 30.7% | Labour→Lib Dem +26.2pp | 38.6% |
| Welwyn East | Conservative 39.3%vs Labour 37.6% | May 2026 Conservative 35.6%vs Reform 23.9% | Conservative share -3.7pp | 49.3% |
| Welwyn West | Conservative 42.6%vs Labour 30.5% | May 2026 Conservative 41.1%vs Reform 27.7% | Conservative share -1.5pp | 49.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Welwyn Hatfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Welwyn Hatfield at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Grant Shapps | 21.4% | 57.0% | 16.4% | 17,423 | 68.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Grant Shapps | 26.1% | 50.4% | 6.3% | 12,153 | 68.5%+0.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Grant Shapps | 36.8% | 51.0% | 7.4% | 7,369 | 70.9%+2.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Grant Shapps 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 31.7% | 52.5% | 12.7% | 10,773 | 69.5%-1.4 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Andrew Lewin | 41.0% | 33.2% | 6.4% | 3,799 | 64.4%-5.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Welwyn Hatfield
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Welwyn Hatfield. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Social rent26.4 / 25.2vs 16.8
- ↓Age 65+18.5 / 19.5vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied55.3 / 58.9vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent26.4 / 24.9vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied55.3 / 58.6vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+18.5 / 19.9vs 22.7
- ↑Social rent26.4 / 24.3vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied55.3 / 57.8vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+18.5 / 19.1vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3535.6 / 34.8vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied55.3 / 58.2vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+18.5 / 20.4vs 22.7
- ↑Social rent26.4 / 32.8vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied55.3 / 49.6vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+18.5 / 18.6vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.