Wythenshawe and Sale East
North West · Borough constituency
About the Wythenshawe and Sale East constituency
Wythenshawe and Sale East is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Mike Kane (Labour), first elected in February 2014. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 52.6% to 15.3% for Reform UK, a majority of 14,610 votes on a 50.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 43.2% and Reform UK on 24.3%, a margin of 18.9 points.
Who lives in Wythenshawe and Sale East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Wythenshawe and Sale East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Wythenshawe and Sale East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Wythenshawe and Sale East within Manchester and Trafford
Wythenshawe and Sale East crosses council boundaries: Manchester (70%), Trafford (30%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester | 70% | View projection › |
| Trafford | 30% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baguley | Labour 53.9%vs Reform 18.0% | May 2026 Reform 40.9%vs Labour 27.9% | Labour→Reform +24.4pp | 28.1% |
| Brooklands | Labour 53.1%vs Reform 15.6% | May 2026 Reform 32.3%vs Labour 32.0% | Labour→Reform +18.9pp | 33.5% |
| Brooklands | Labour 48.9%vs Conservative 24.6% | May 2026 Labour 32.0%vs Conservative 26.0% | Labour share -16.9pp | 56.6% |
| Northenden | Labour 54.6%vs Reform 17.4% | May 2026 Labour 38.1%vs Reform 28.5% | Labour share -16.5pp | 34.3% |
| Sale Central | Labour 55.7%vs Conservative 13.6% | May 2026 Labour 36.4%vs Green 24.4% | Labour share -19.4pp | 50.1% |
| Sale Moor | Labour 52.4%vs Conservative 18.5% | May 2026 Labour 36.9%vs Reform 24.7% | Labour share -15.5pp | 40.7% |
| Sharston | Labour 54.0%vs Reform 17.8% | May 2026 Reform 38.2%vs Labour 32.1% | Labour→Reform +21.2pp | 26.8% |
| Woodhouse Park | Labour 47.8%vs Green 18.0% | May 2026 Green 46.4%vs Reform 33.4% | Labour→Green +30.9pp | 26.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Wythenshawe and Sale East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Wythenshawe and Sale East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Paul Goggins | 44.1% | 25.6% | 22.3% | 7,575 | 51.0% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Mike Kane | 50.1% | 25.7% | 4.5% | 10,569 | 56.9%+5.9 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Mike Kane | 62.2% | 29.6% | 3.3% | 14,944 | 60.0%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Michael Kane 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 53.3% | 30.1% | 7.0% | 10,396 | 58.2%-1.8 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Mike Kane | 52.6% | 13.8% | 5.1% | 14,610 | 50.3%-7.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Wythenshawe and Sale East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Wythenshawe and Sale East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Social rent32.8 / 31.4vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied49.6 / 53.0vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent32.8 / 28.1vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied49.6 / 54.8vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent32.8 / 26.4vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied49.6 / 55.3vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+18.6 / 18.5vs 22.7
- ↑Social rent32.8 / 25.2vs 16.8
- ↓Age 65+18.6 / 19.5vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied49.6 / 58.9vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent32.8 / 24.9vs 16.8
- ↓Age 65+18.6 / 19.9vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied49.6 / 58.6vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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