Constituency profile

Wythenshawe and Sale East

North West · Borough constituency

Mike Kane MP
Sitting MP

Mike Kane

Labour

First elected February 2014

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
49.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -2.3pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +18.9pp
vs Reform UK 24.3%
NorthernBrexit-marginal

About the Wythenshawe and Sale East constituency

Wythenshawe and Sale East is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Mike Kane (Labour), first elected in February 2014. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 52.6% to 15.3% for Reform UK, a majority of 14,610 votes on a 50.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 43.2% and Reform UK on 24.3%, a margin of 18.9 points.

Who lives in Wythenshawe and Sale East? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
49.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
33.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
20.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
49.6%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
49.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
37.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
18.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
31.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Wythenshawe and Sale East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 14,610 votes (37.3pp) · turnout 50.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Wythenshawe and Sale East

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Wythenshawe and Sale East within Manchester and Trafford

Wythenshawe and Sale East crosses council boundaries: Manchester (70%), Trafford (30%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Manchester
44 LSOAs
70%View projection ›
Trafford
19 LSOAs
30%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BaguleyLabour 53.9%vs Reform 18.0%May 2026 Reform 40.9%vs Labour 27.9%
Labour→Reform
+24.4pp
28.1%
BrooklandsLabour 53.1%vs Reform 15.6%May 2026 Reform 32.3%vs Labour 32.0%
Labour→Reform
+18.9pp
33.5%
BrooklandsLabour 48.9%vs Conservative 24.6%May 2026 Labour 32.0%vs Conservative 26.0%
Labour share
-16.9pp
56.6%
NorthendenLabour 54.6%vs Reform 17.4%May 2026 Labour 38.1%vs Reform 28.5%
Labour share
-16.5pp
34.3%
Sale CentralLabour 55.7%vs Conservative 13.6%May 2026 Labour 36.4%vs Green 24.4%
Labour share
-19.4pp
50.1%
Sale MoorLabour 52.4%vs Conservative 18.5%May 2026 Labour 36.9%vs Reform 24.7%
Labour share
-15.5pp
40.7%
SharstonLabour 54.0%vs Reform 17.8%May 2026 Reform 38.2%vs Labour 32.1%
Labour→Reform
+21.2pp
26.8%
Woodhouse ParkLabour 47.8%vs Green 18.0%May 2026 Green 46.4%vs Reform 33.4%
Labour→Green
+30.9pp
26.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Wythenshawe and Sale East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Wythenshawe and Sale East at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdPaul Goggins44.1%25.6%22.3%3.4% UKIP-4.5%7,57551.0%
2015Lab holdMike Kane50.1%25.7%4.5%14.7% UKIP3.8%1.2%10,56956.9%+5.9
2017Lab holdMike Kane62.2%29.6%3.3%3.2% UKIP1.3%0.4%14,94460.0%+3.1
2019notionalLabour winnerMichael Kane 2019 MP, pre-review boundary53.3%30.1%7.0%-3.5%6.1%10,39658.2%-1.8
2024Lab holdMike Kane52.6%13.8%5.1%15.3% Ref10.6%2.7%14,61050.3%-7.9

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Wythenshawe and Sale East

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Wythenshawe and Sale East. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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