Birmingham Northfield
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Birmingham borough
About the Birmingham Northfield constituency
Birmingham Northfield is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Laurence Turner (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.6% to 25.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,389 votes on a 50.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.1% and Labour on 26.1%, a margin of 5.0 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Birmingham Northfield? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Birmingham Northfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Birmingham Northfield
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Birmingham Northfield within Birmingham
Birmingham Northfield sits entirely within Birmingham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allens Cross | Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 27.1% | May 2026 Reform 34.3%vs Others 23.5% | Labour→Reform +18.6pp | - |
| Frankley Great Park | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 26.4% | May 2026 Reform 38.9%vs Others 22.6% | Labour→Reform +20.5pp | - |
| King's Norton North | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 25.0% | May 2026 Reform 33.7%vs Labour 24.5% | Labour→Reform +14.8pp | - |
| King's Norton South | Labour 34.7%vs Reform 20.6% | May 2026 Green 60.3%vs Reform 26.6% | Labour→Green +37.2pp | - |
| Longbridge & West Heath | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 27.6% | May 2026 Reform 39.1%vs Conservative 30.2% | Labour→Reform +21.8pp | - |
| Northfield | Labour 46.3%vs Conservative 25.8% | May 2026 Reform 35.7%vs Labour 26.1% | Labour→Reform +19.1pp | - |
| Rubery & Rednal | Labour 38.3%vs Conservative 27.1% | May 2026 Reform 36.9%vs Conservative 34.9% | Labour→Reform +21.1pp | - |
| Weoley & Selly Oak | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 22.4% | May 2026 Reform 27.2%vs Conservative 25.4% | Labour→Reform +14.1pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Birmingham Northfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Birmingham Northfield at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Richard Burden | 40.3% | 33.6% | 15.7% | 2,782 | 58.6% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Richard Burden | 41.6% | 35.7% | 3.2% | 2,509 | 59.4%+0.8 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Richard Burden | 53.2% | 42.7% | 2.2% | 4,667 | 61.3%+1.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Gary Sambrook 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.7% | 46.1% | 4.6% | 1,478 | 59.5%-1.8 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Laurence Turner | 39.6% | 25.3% | 4.8% | 5,389 | 50.8%-8.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Birmingham Northfield
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Birmingham Northfield. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Social rent28.1 / 26.9vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied54.8 / 54.4vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.6 / 24.2vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate27.6 / 27.0vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent28.1 / 23.4vs 16.8
- ↑No quals23.3 / 22.7vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent28.1 / 32.8vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied54.8 / 49.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent15.1 / 16.6vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate27.6 / 27.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.3 / 24.0vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent28.1 / 20.7vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate27.6 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.3 / 22.7vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent28.1 / 21.5vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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