Eltham and Chislehurst
London · Borough constituency
About the Eltham and Chislehurst constituency
Eltham and Chislehurst is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Clive Efford (Labour), first elected in May 1997. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.0% to 25.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,429 votes on a 61.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 33.4% and Reform UK on 25.8%, a margin of 7.6 points.
Who lives in Eltham and Chislehurst? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Eltham and Chislehurst vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Eltham and Chislehurst
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Eltham and Chislehurst within Greenwich and Bromley
Eltham and Chislehurst crosses council boundaries: Greenwich (74%), Bromley (26%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Greenwich | 74% | View projection › |
| Bromley | 26% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackheath Westcombe | Labour 51.4%vs Conservative 17.3% | May 2026 Labour 29.0%vs Green 26.6% | Labour share -22.4pp | 53.8% |
| Charlton Hornfair | Labour 56.1%vs Reform 12.7% | May 2026 Green 35.8%vs Labour 32.2% | Labour→Green +24.9pp | 44.7% |
| Chislehurst | Labour 30.2%vs Conservative 26.9% | May 2026 Others 60.8%vs Reform 16.7% | Labour→Others +42.6pp | 50.9% |
| Eltham Page | Labour 48.0%vs Reform 20.1% | May 2026 Reform 33.2%vs Labour 32.8% | Labour→Reform +14.1pp | 40.5% |
| Eltham Park & Progress | Labour 48.8%vs Conservative 30.3% | May 2026 Labour 29.5%vs Reform 24.8% | Labour share -19.3pp | 57.7% |
| Eltham Town & Avery Hill | Labour 45.6%vs Conservative 30.5% | May 2026 Conservative 34.5%vs Reform 24.0% | Labour→Conservative +13.6pp | 50.1% |
| Kidbrooke Park | Labour 50.8%vs Conservative 23.0% | May 2026 Labour 34.5%vs Reform 23.9% | Labour share -16.3pp | 42.0% |
| Kidbrooke Village & Sutcliffe | Labour 47.2%vs Conservative 19.2% | May 2026 Labour 36.1%vs Green 31.2% | Labour share -11.1pp | 38.4% |
| Middle Park & Horn Park | Labour 49.1%vs Conservative 19.2% | May 2026 Labour 35.9%vs Reform 29.6% | Labour share -13.3pp | 40.8% |
| Mottingham | Labour 39.3%vs Conservative 24.8% | May 2026 Conservative 29.5%vs Reform 28.7% | Labour→Conservative +11.6pp | 39.6% |
| Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham | Labour 41.6%vs Conservative 31.3% | May 2026 Conservative 38.5%vs Reform 24.7% | Labour→Conservative +13.7pp | 46.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Eltham and Chislehurst at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Eltham and Chislehurst at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Clive Efford Eltham MP | 41.5% | 37.5% | 12.6% | 1,663 | 67.0% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Clive Efford Eltham MP | 42.6% | 36.4% | 3.0% | 2,693 | 67.4%+0.4 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Clive Efford Eltham MP | 54.4% | 40.8% | 3.2% | 6,296 | 71.6%+4.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Robert Neill Bromley and Chislehurst MP, pre-review boundary | 40.1% | 46.9% | 7.5% | 3,444 | 68.9% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Clive Efford | 44.0% | 25.5% | 5.3% | 8,429 | 61.6%-7.3 |
Eltham and Chislehurst was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Eltham (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Eltham and Chislehurst
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Eltham and Chislehurst. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Social rent24.3 / 26.4vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied57.8 / 55.3vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate40.0 / 37.3vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent24.3 / 20.0vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate40.0 / 37.4vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent24.3 / 19.4vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate40.0 / 39.3vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate40.0 / 39.6vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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