Chingford and Woodford Green
London · Borough constituency
About the Chingford and Woodford Green constituency
Chingford and Woodford Green is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Sir Iain Duncan Smith (Conservative), first elected in April 1992. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.6% to 25.8% for Labour, a majority of 4,757 votes on a 65.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.0% and other parties on 20.9%, a margin of 12.1 points.
Who lives in Chingford and Woodford Green? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Chingford and Woodford Green vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Chingford and Woodford Green
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Chingford and Woodford Green within Waltham Forest and Redbridge
Chingford and Woodford Green crosses council boundaries: Waltham Forest (64%), Redbridge (36%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Waltham Forest | 64% | View projection › |
| Redbridge | 36% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridge | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 27.2% | May 2026 Conservative 31.4%vs Reform 24.1% | Conservative share -2.6pp | - |
| Chingford Green | Conservative 47.6%vs Labour 23.3% | May 2026 Conservative 58.9%vs Green 15.2% | Conservative share +11.3pp | - |
| Churchfields | Conservative 31.3%vs Labour 28.2% | May 2026 Labour 33.1%vs Others 22.0% | Conservative→Labour +8.6pp | - |
| Endlebury | Conservative 43.2%vs Others 24.5% | May 2026 Conservative 57.2%vs Green 16.2% | Conservative share +14.0pp | 46.5% |
| Hale End & Highams Park South | Others 34.2%vs Labour 32.1% | May 2026 Labour 43.9%vs Green 22.8% | Others→Labour +23.0pp | - |
| Hatch Lane & Highams Park North | Conservative 32.3%vs Labour 27.2% | May 2026 Conservative 38.9%vs Green 23.9% | Conservative share +6.6pp | - |
| Larkswood | Conservative 38.8%vs Others 26.7% | May 2026 Conservative 39.6%vs Others 25.9% | Conservative share +0.8pp | - |
| Monkhams | Conservative 40.3%vs Others 23.6% | May 2026 Conservative 53.6%vs Reform 13.6% | Conservative share +13.3pp | - |
| Upper Walthamstow | Labour 50.6%vs Conservative 15.2% | May 2026 Labour 48.9%vs Green 31.4% | Labour share -1.7pp | - |
| Valley | Conservative 33.2%vs Others 26.0% | May 2026 Conservative 41.4%vs Labour 25.4% | Conservative share +8.2pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Chingford and Woodford Green at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Chingford and Woodford Green at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Iain Duncan Smith | 22.7% | 52.8% | 16.8% | 12,963 | 66.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Iain Duncan Smith | 28.8% | 47.9% | 5.5% | 8,386 | 65.7%-0.8 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Iain Duncan Smith | 43.9% | 49.1% | 4.4% | 2,438 | 71.2%+5.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Iain Duncan Smith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 45.3% | 48.2% | 5.8% | 1,604 | 72.2%+1.0 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Iain Duncan Smith | 25.8% | 35.6% | 2.6% | 4,757 | 65.5%-6.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Chingford and Woodford Green
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Chingford and Woodford Green. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate39.6 / 37.4vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate39.6 / 38.3vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate39.6 / 42.1vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate39.6 / 46.4vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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