Sutton and Cheam
London · Borough constituency · Sutton borough
About the Sutton and Cheam constituency
Sutton and Cheam is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Luke Taylor (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 36.9% to 28.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,801 votes on a 65.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 38.1% and the Conservatives on 27.5%, a margin of 10.6 points.
Who lives in Sutton and Cheam? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Sutton and Cheam vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Sutton and Cheam
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Sutton and Cheam within Sutton
Sutton and Cheam sits entirely within Sutton Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Sutton | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont | Lib Dem 36.2%vs Conservative 29.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.1%vs Conservative 27.6% | Lib Dem share +7.9pp | - |
| Cheam | Lib Dem 35.2%vs Conservative 33.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.4%vs Conservative 30.3% | Lib Dem share +6.2pp | - |
| North Cheam | Lib Dem 35.8%vs Conservative 32.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.0%vs Reform 24.4% | Lib Dem share +5.2pp | - |
| Stonecot | Lib Dem 38.8%vs Conservative 28.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.2%vs Reform 22.3% | Lib Dem share +9.3pp | - |
| Sutton Central | Lib Dem 37.4%vs Labour 23.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.4%vs Green 20.9% | Lib Dem share +8.9pp | - |
| Sutton North | Lib Dem 37.8%vs Conservative 28.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.0%vs Reform 21.3% | Lib Dem share +8.3pp | - |
| Sutton South | Lib Dem 38.6%vs Conservative 26.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.9%vs Conservative 21.0% | Lib Dem share +10.2pp | - |
| Sutton West & East Cheam | Lib Dem 38.6%vs Conservative 27.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 51.1%vs Reform 18.0% | Lib Dem share +12.5pp | - |
| Worcester Park North | Lib Dem 35.1%vs Conservative 30.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.2%vs Conservative 21.3% | Lib Dem share +6.2pp | - |
| Worcester Park South | Lib Dem 35.0%vs Conservative 32.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.4%vs Reform 22.0% | Lib Dem share +11.5pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Sutton and Cheam at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Sutton and Cheam at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Paul Burstow | 7.0% | 42.4% | 45.7% | 1,608 | 72.8% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Paul Scully | 11.1% | 41.5% | 33.7% | 3,921 | 72.1%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Paul Scully | 20.5% | 51.1% | 26.7% | 12,698 | 73.8%+1.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Paul Scully 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 14.3% | 50.0% | 33.4% | 8,351 | 70.8%-3.0 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Luke Taylor | 17.7% | 28.9% | 36.9% | 3,801 | 65.8%-5.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Sutton and Cheam
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Sutton and Cheam. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed63.2 / 62.8vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate42.1 / 38.3vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent9.1 / 14.7vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate42.1 / 41.6vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent24.6 / 23.2vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.1 / 46.4vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent9.1 / 9.6vs 16.8
- ↑Employed63.2 / 62.0vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate42.1 / 48.5vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent9.1 / 11.4vs 16.8
- ↑Private rent24.6 / 23.3vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.1 / 39.6vs 33.7
- ↑Employed63.2 / 60.4vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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