Chipping Barnet
London · Borough constituency · Barnet borough
About the Chipping Barnet constituency
Chipping Barnet is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Dan Tomlinson (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.4% to 36.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,914 votes on a 65.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 38.6% and Labour on 36.9%, a margin of 1.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Chipping Barnet? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Chipping Barnet vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Chipping Barnet
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Chipping Barnet within Barnet
Chipping Barnet sits entirely within Barnet Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet Vale | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 36.1% | May 2026 Labour 33.2%vs Conservative 32.3% | Labour share -7.7pp | 49.0% |
| Brunswick Park | Labour 43.3%vs Conservative 37.0% | May 2026 Conservative 33.0%vs Labour 30.6% | Labour→Conservative +4.4pp | 44.7% |
| East Barnet | Labour 42.9%vs Conservative 36.6% | May 2026 Labour 32.1%vs Conservative 29.8% | Labour share -10.7pp | 47.1% |
| Edgwarebury | Labour 41.4%vs Conservative 37.4% | May 2026 Conservative 57.7%vs Reform 16.0% | Labour→Conservative +24.0pp | 43.3% |
| High Barnet | Labour 44.7%vs Conservative 36.9% | May 2026 Conservative 32.4%vs Labour 31.6% | Labour→Conservative +4.3pp | 51.9% |
| Totteridge & Woodside | Conservative 42.0%vs Labour 36.3% | May 2026 Conservative 50.0%vs Labour 19.7% | Conservative share +8.1pp | 44.9% |
| Underhill | Labour 47.4%vs Conservative 33.4% | May 2026 Labour 30.1%vs Reform 20.4% | Labour share -17.3pp | 46.6% |
| Whetstone | Labour 43.9%vs Conservative 33.4% | May 2026 Conservative 34.3%vs Labour 33.2% | Labour→Conservative +5.8pp | 46.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Chipping Barnet at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Chipping Barnet at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Theresa Villiers | 25.2% | 48.8% | 20.2% | 11,927 | 67.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Theresa Villiers | 34.1% | 48.6% | 4.5% | 7,656 | 68.1%+0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Theresa Villiers | 45.7% | 46.3% | 5.4% | 353 | 71.8%+3.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Theresa Villiers 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 40.3% | 47.5% | 9.8% | 4,209 | 76.7%+4.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Dan Tomlinson | 42.4% | 36.7% | 5.1% | 2,914 | 65.2%-11.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Chipping Barnet
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Chipping Barnet. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate48.5 / 48.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.1 / 37.4vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate48.5 / 46.4vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.1 / 45.8vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent11.4 / 9.6vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate48.5 / 42.1vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent11.4 / 9.1vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate48.5 / 49.4vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.1 / 40.8vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent11.4 / 11.8vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate48.5 / 44.7vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.1 / 44.2vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent11.4 / 11.6vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.