Kingston and Surbiton
London · Borough constituency · Kingston upon Thames borough
About the Kingston and Surbiton constituency
Kingston and Surbiton is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Ed Davey (Liberal Democrat), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 51.1% to 17.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 17,235 votes on a 65.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 45.8% and the Conservatives on 19.2%, a margin of 26.6 points.
Who lives in Kingston and Surbiton? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Kingston and Surbiton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Kingston and Surbiton
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Kingston and Surbiton within Kingston upon Thames
Kingston and Surbiton sits entirely within Kingston upon Thames Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Kingston upon Thames | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra | Lib Dem 50.5%vs Conservative 22.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.1%vs Conservative 18.1% | Lib Dem share -9.4pp | - |
| Berrylands | Lib Dem 53.5%vs Conservative 19.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.2%vs Conservative 24.0% | Lib Dem share -7.3pp | - |
| Chessington South & Malden Rushett | Lib Dem 49.3%vs Conservative 21.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.2%vs Reform 28.8% | Lib Dem share -1.0pp | - |
| Coombe Vale | Lib Dem 48.5%vs Conservative 21.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.0%vs Conservative 19.7% | Lib Dem share -5.5pp | - |
| Green Lane & St James | Lib Dem 48.0%vs Conservative 15.5% | May 2026 Others 46.0%vs Lib Dem 35.5% | Lib Dem→Others +29.2pp | - |
| Hook & Chessington North | Lib Dem 51.2%vs Conservative 18.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.5%vs Reform 18.2% | Lib Dem share -5.7pp | - |
| King George's & Sunray | Lib Dem 48.9%vs Conservative 19.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.4%vs Conservative 24.2% | Lib Dem share -0.5pp | - |
| Kingston Town | Lib Dem 49.6%vs Labour 16.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.2%vs Green 19.1% | Lib Dem share -9.5pp | - |
| New Malden Village | Lib Dem 48.0%vs Conservative 15.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.2%vs Others 26.9% | Lib Dem share -7.8pp | - |
| Norbiton | Lib Dem 51.5%vs Labour 18.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.1%vs Green 16.8% | Lib Dem share -7.4pp | - |
| St Mark's & Seething Wells | Lib Dem 52.6%vs Conservative 13.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.0%vs Green 25.9% | Lib Dem share -4.5pp | - |
| Surbiton Hill | Lib Dem 54.1%vs Conservative 15.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 50.7%vs Green 15.4% | Lib Dem share -3.4pp | - |
| Tolworth | Lib Dem 53.7%vs Conservative 14.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 50.4%vs Green 13.7% | Lib Dem share -3.3pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Kingston and Surbiton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Kingston and Surbiton at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Edward Davey | 9.3% | 36.5% | 49.8% | 7,560 | 70.4% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | James Berry | 14.5% | 39.2% | 34.5% | 2,834 | 72.9%+2.5 |
| 2017 | LD gain from Con | Edward Davey | 14.8% | 38.1% | 44.7% | 4,124 | 76.2%+3.3 |
| 2019notional | Liberal Democrat winner | Edward Davey 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 10.2% | 33.1% | 52.6% | 11,174 | 75.7%-0.5 |
| 2024 | LD hold | Ed Davey | 13.0% | 17.0% | 51.1% | 17,235 | 65.5%-10.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Kingston and Surbiton
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Kingston and Surbiton. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate49.4 / 48.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave40.8 / 41.1vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent11.8 / 11.4vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate49.4 / 41.6vs 33.7
- ↓No quals12.4 / 12.8vs 18.0
- ↓Leave40.8 / 46.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate49.4 / 44.7vs 33.7
- ↓Leave40.8 / 44.2vs 53.2
- ↑Employed62.9 / 63.6vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate49.4 / 48.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave40.8 / 40.6vs 53.2
- ↓No quals12.4 / 12.1vs 18.0
- ↓Leave40.8 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate49.4 / 44.5vs 33.7
- ↓No quals12.4 / 13.7vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.