Constituency profile

Windsor

South East · County constituency

Jack Rankin MP
Sitting MP

Jack Rankin

Conservative

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
46.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -5.2pp below mean
Current outlook
Conservative +7.6pp
vs Reform UK 21.7%
SouthernBrexit-marginalGraduate-heavyDiverse

About the Windsor constituency

Windsor is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Jack Rankin (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.4% to 22.2% for Labour, a majority of 6,457 votes on a 61.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 29.3% and Reform UK on 21.7%, a margin of 7.6 points.

Who lives in Windsor? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
46.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
41.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
12.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
60.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
38.7%
UK average ~36%
Median age
40.1
UK median ~40
Age 65+
19.8%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
31.2%
UK average ~28%

How did Windsor vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 6,457 votes (14.2pp) · turnout 61.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Windsor

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Windsor within Windsor and Maidenhead and Slough and 1 other council

Windsor crosses council boundaries: Windsor and Maidenhead (64%), Slough (19%), Runnymede (16%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Windsor and Maidenhead
40 LSOAs
64%
Slough
12 LSOAs
19%
Runnymede
10 LSOAs
16%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
19 Oct 2024Ascot & Sunninghill
Windsor and Maidenhead
Con HOLD—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Ascot & SunninghillConservative 38.7%vs Lib Dem 21.7%2023 Conservative 48.7%vs Lib Dem 38.9%-33.8%
Clewer & Dedworth EastConservative 32.7%vs Labour 20.7%2023 Others 66.2%vs Conservative 20.7%-32.6%
Clewer & Dedworth WestConservative 34.1%vs Labour 21.6%2023 Others 40.6%vs Independent 39.4%-35.9%
Clewer EastLib Dem 32.5%vs Conservative 29.7%2023 Lib Dem 79.9%vs Conservative 20.1%-37.5%
Colnbrook & PoyleConservative 36.2%vs Labour 31.1%2023 Conservative 50.9%vs Labour 37.7%-30.0%
Datchet, Horton & WraysburyConservative 40.9%vs Labour 19.7%2023 Others 48.1%vs Conservative 30.4%-47.6%
Englefield Green EastConservative 36.9%vs Labour 23.8%2023 Independent 54.5%vs Conservative 23.2%-35.5%
Englefield Green WestConservative 33.0%vs Labour 26.6%2024 Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 29.5%--
Eton & CastleConservative 34.1%vs Lib Dem 27.5%2023 Lib Dem 57.9%vs Conservative 27.9%-39.7%
Langley FoxboroughLabour 35.7%vs Conservative 30.3%2023 Labour 44.8%vs Conservative 28.0%-30.0%
Langley MarishConservative 44.9%vs Labour 26.2%2023 Conservative 54.0%vs Labour 28.0%-40.0%
Old WindsorConservative 31.3%vs Lib Dem 21.2%2023 Others 77.3%vs Conservative 15.3%-35.0%
Sunningdale & CheapsideConservative 43.0%vs Lib Dem 18.1%2023 Conservative 45.8%vs Others 34.0%-37.1%
Virginia WaterConservative 40.7%vs Lib Dem 24.1%2024 Lib Dem 50.8%vs Conservative 43.9%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Windsor at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Windsor at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdAdam Afriyie9.9%60.8%22.4%3.3% UKIP1.3%2.3%19,05471.3%
2015Con holdAdam Afriyie13.4%63.4%8.6%10.0% UKIP3.7%1.0%25,08370.1%-1.2
2017Con holdAdam Afriyie22.9%64.4%10.1%-2.7%-22,38473.3%+3.2
2019notionalConservative winnerAdam Afriyie 2019 MP, pre-review boundary19.6%56.0%18.9%-3.5%2.0%18,24767.3%-6.0
2024Con holdJack Rankin22.2%36.4%21.1%10.3% Ref5.1%5.0%6,45761.7%-5.6

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Windsor

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Windsor. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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