Warwick and Leamington
West Midlands · County constituency · Warwick borough
About the Warwick and Leamington constituency
Warwick and Leamington is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Matt Western (Labour), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 48.7% to 23.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 12,412 votes on a 64.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 37.0% and the Conservatives on 19.8%, a margin of 17.2 points.
Who lives in Warwick and Leamington? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Warwick and Leamington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Warwick and Leamington
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Warwick and Leamington within Warwick
Warwick and Leamington sits entirely within Warwick Council. Warwick was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Warwick | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2025 | Leamington Clarendon | Lab HOLD | Lab 30% LD 30% Ref 16% |
| 14 Feb 2025 | Warwick All Saints & Woodloes | Grn GAIN from Ind | — |
| 9 May 2024 | Leamington Clarendon | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop's Tachbrook | Labour 46.8%vs Conservative 28.5% | 2023 Labour 44.3%vs Conservative 42.8% | - | 33.5% |
| Leamington Brunswick | Labour 50.8%vs Conservative 16.3% | 2023 Green 62.7%vs Labour 25.5% | - | 24.2% |
| Leamington Clarendon | Labour 56.2%vs Conservative 20.0% | 2023 Labour 56.5%vs Lib Dem 18.3% | - | 40.6% |
| Leamington Lillington | Labour 45.4%vs Conservative 22.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.9%vs Labour 21.6% | - | 38.9% |
| Leamington Milverton | Labour 42.3%vs Conservative 23.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.7%vs Labour 19.8% | - | 39.2% |
| Leamington Willes | Labour 53.2%vs Conservative 17.0% | 2023 Green 67.1%vs Labour 15.0% | - | 41.2% |
| Radford Semele | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 35.1% | 2023 Conservative 40.1%vs Lib Dem 36.7% | - | 38.2% |
| Warwick All Saints & Woodloes | Labour 48.5%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Labour 47.6%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 36.9% |
| Warwick Aylesford | Labour 49.0%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2023 Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 35.1% | - | 53.5% |
| Warwick Myton & Heathcote | Labour 43.2%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Green 51.6%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 50.1% |
| Warwick Saltisford | Labour 50.8%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2023 Labour 50.4%vs Conservative 28.2% | - | 38.0% |
| Whitnash | Labour 53.4%vs Conservative 21.8% | 2023 Others 59.7%vs Green 13.2% | - | 46.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Warwick and Leamington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Warwick and Leamington at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Chris White | 35.4% | 42.6% | 18.3% | 3,513 | 72.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Chris White | 34.9% | 47.9% | 5.0% | 6,606 | 70.7%-1.6 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Matt Western | 46.7% | 44.4% | 5.2% | 1,206 | 72.8%+2.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Matt Western 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 43.3% | 41.1% | 10.9% | 1,169 | 69.2%-3.6 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Matt Western | 48.7% | 23.5% | 7.9% | 12,412 | 64.5%-4.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Warwick and Leamington
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Warwick and Leamington. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave41.6 / 41.2vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.5 / 46.1vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3534.4 / 36.5vs 30.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.5 / 43.0vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3534.4 / 35.0vs 30.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 43.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.5 / 40.1vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate44.5 / 44.7vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 44.2vs 53.2
- ↓No quals13.7 / 13.2vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate44.5 / 41.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 46.7vs 53.2
- ↓No quals13.7 / 12.8vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.