Warwick and Leamington
West Midlands · County constituency · Warwick borough
About the Warwick and Leamington constituency
Warwick and Leamington is a county constituency in the West Midlands, covering most or all of Warwick. The sitting MP is Matt Western (Labour), first elected in June 2017.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Warwick and Leamington with 48.7% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 23.5%, a majority of 12,412 votes. Turnout was 64.5%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Labour on 31.0% and the Greens on 21.8% in Warwick and Leamington, a margin of 9.2 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Warwick and Leamington is a Remain-leaning area (an estimated 41.6% voted Leave in 2016). About 44.5% of residents hold a degree, 60.4% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 38 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by Labour 3 times, the Conservatives 2 times (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Warwick and Leamington? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Warwick and Leamington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Warwick and Leamington
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Warwick and Leamington within Warwick
The Westminster constituency of Warwick and Leamington sits entirely within Warwick Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Warwick was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Warwick | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2025 | Leamington Clarendon | Lab HOLD | Lab 30% LD 30% Ref 16% |
| 14 Feb 2025 | Warwick All Saints & Woodloes | Grn GAIN from Ind | — |
| 9 May 2024 | Leamington Clarendon | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Warwick and Leamington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Warwick and Leamington at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Chris White | 35.4% | 42.6% | 18.3% | 3,513 | 72.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Chris White | 34.9% | 47.9% | 5.0% | 6,606 | 70.7%-1.6 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Matt Western | 46.7% | 44.4% | 5.2% | 1,206 | 72.8%+2.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Matt Western 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 43.3% | 41.1% | 10.9% | 1,169 | 69.2%-3.6 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Matt Western | 48.7% | 23.5% | 7.9% | 12,412 | 64.5%-4.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Warwick and Leamington
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Warwick and Leamington. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave41.6 / 41.2vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.5 / 46.1vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3534.4 / 36.5vs 30.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.5 / 43.0vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3534.4 / 35.0vs 30.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 43.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.5 / 40.1vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate44.5 / 44.7vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 44.2vs 53.2
- ↓No quals13.7 / 13.2vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate44.5 / 41.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 46.7vs 53.2
- ↓No quals13.7 / 12.8vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.