Guildford
South East · County constituency · Guildford borough
About the Guildford constituency
Guildford is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Zöe Franklin (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 47.5% to 30.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,429 votes on a 68.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 45.1% and the Conservatives on 24.5%, a margin of 20.7 points.
Who lives in Guildford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Guildford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Guildford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Guildford within Guildford
Guildford sits entirely within Guildford Council. Guildford was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Guildford | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellfields & Slyfield | Lib Dem 44.1%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 28.8% |
| Burpham | Lib Dem 50.1%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 42.9%vs Conservative 30.1% | - | 47.2% |
| Castle | Lib Dem 45.6%vs Conservative 32.3% | 2023 Conservative 34.1%vs Others 33.6% | - | 47.5% |
| Clandon & Horsley | Lib Dem 41.1%vs Conservative 37.5% | 2023 Others 62.9%vs Conservative 21.3% | - | 46.4% |
| Effingham | Lib Dem 55.9%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.8%vs Conservative 29.9% | - | 40.7% |
| Merrow | Lib Dem 45.8%vs Conservative 33.3% | 2023 Conservative 30.0%vs Others 29.6% | - | 60.9% |
| Onslow | Lib Dem 52.9%vs Conservative 25.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.1%vs Conservative 20.4% | - | 37.5% |
| Send & Lovelace | Lib Dem 40.8%vs Conservative 36.4% | 2023 Others 63.3%vs Conservative 21.2% | - | 42.6% |
| St Nicolas | Lib Dem 55.6%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.2%vs Conservative 22.5% | - | 49.4% |
| Stoke | Lib Dem 46.6%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 33.4%vs Labour 24.6% | - | 39.4% |
| Stoughton North | Lib Dem 53.5%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.7%vs Conservative 22.0% | - | 37.3% |
| Stoughton South | Lib Dem 52.9%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 42.2%vs Labour 26.6% | - | 36.6% |
| Westborough | Lib Dem 51.5%vs Conservative 23.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.9%vs Conservative 24.2% | - | 25.3% |
| Worplesdon | Lib Dem 41.1%vs Conservative 38.4% | 2023 Conservative 43.0%vs Others 29.6% | - | 42.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Guildford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Guildford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Anne Milton | 5.1% | 53.3% | 39.3% | 7,782 | 72.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Anne Milton | 12.1% | 57.1% | 15.5% | 22,448 | 71.3%-0.8 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Anne Milton | 19.0% | 54.6% | 23.9% | 17,040 | 73.7%+2.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Angela Richardson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 8.4% | 45.1% | 39.2% | 3,117 | 73.7%+0.0 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Zöe Franklin | 8.1% | 30.0% | 47.5% | 8,429 | 68.3%-5.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Guildford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Guildford. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave41.2 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.1 / 44.5vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3536.5 / 34.4vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate46.1 / 49.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.2 / 38.0vs 53.2
- ↓No quals10.6 / 9.4vs 18.0
- ↓Leave41.2 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.1 / 43.0vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3536.5 / 35.0vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate46.1 / 44.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.2 / 42.9vs 53.2
- ↓No quals10.6 / 12.7vs 18.0
- ↓Leave41.2 / 43.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.1 / 40.1vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.