Oxford West and Abingdon
South East · County constituency
About the Oxford West and Abingdon constituency
Oxford West and Abingdon is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Layla Moran (Liberal Democrat), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 50.9% to 18.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 14,894 votes on a 65.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 46.0% and Reform UK on 17.3%, a margin of 28.7 points.
Who lives in Oxford West and Abingdon? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Oxford West and Abingdon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Oxford West and Abingdon
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Oxford West and Abingdon within Vale of White Horse and Oxford
Oxford West and Abingdon crosses council boundaries: Vale of White Horse (67%), Oxford (33%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Vale of White Horse | 67% | — |
| Oxford | 33% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | Abingdon Abbey Northcourt | LD GAIN from Grn | LD 44% Grn 32% Ref 14% |
| 10 Jul 2025 | Botley & Sunningwell | LD HOLD | LD 72% Con 16% Grn 13% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abingdon Abbey Northcourt | Lib Dem 52.5%vs Conservative 16.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 34.3%vs Green 29.3% | - | 57.6% |
| Abingdon Caldecott | Lib Dem 49.1%vs Conservative 19.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.9%vs Conservative 33.2% | - | 34.5% |
| Abingdon Dunmore | Lib Dem 54.4%vs Conservative 19.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 65.5%vs Conservative 26.7% | - | 42.5% |
| Abingdon Fitzharris | Lib Dem 51.2%vs Conservative 20.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.5%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | 41.8% |
| Abingdon Peachcroft | Lib Dem 51.3%vs Conservative 20.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.0%vs Conservative 30.5% | - | 38.2% |
| Botley & Sunningwell | Lib Dem 55.6%vs Conservative 20.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.7%vs Conservative 17.8% | - | 36.4% |
| Carfax & Jericho | Lib Dem 42.0%vs Labour 24.3% | May 2026 Green 50.2%vs Labour 32.4% | Lib Dem→Green +37.1pp | 48.9% |
| Cumnor | Lib Dem 54.3%vs Conservative 19.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.5%vs Conservative 25.5% | - | 41.6% |
| Cutteslowe & Sunnymead | Lib Dem 53.5%vs Conservative 16.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.5%vs Green 16.9% | Lib Dem share -9.0pp | 48.1% |
| Kennington & Radley | Lib Dem 52.3%vs Conservative 24.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.8%vs Conservative 26.9% | - | 35.6% |
| Marcham | Lib Dem 50.2%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 58.2%vs Conservative 41.8% | - | 33.7% |
| Osney & St Thomas | Lib Dem 41.9%vs Labour 21.3% | May 2026 Green 50.5%vs Labour 32.9% | Lib Dem→Green +38.3pp | 42.9% |
| Summertown | Lib Dem 52.7%vs Conservative 16.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 42.0%vs Labour 24.4% | Lib Dem share -10.7pp | 50.0% |
| Walton Manor | Lib Dem 45.6%vs Labour 22.1% | May 2026 Labour 38.5%vs Lib Dem 25.7% | Lib Dem→Labour +18.2pp | 50.6% |
| Wolvercote | Lib Dem 56.0%vs Conservative 16.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.0%vs Others 27.0% | Lib Dem share -13.0pp | 54.4% |
| Wootton | Lib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 22.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.4%vs Conservative 36.6% | - | 34.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Oxford West and Abingdon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Oxford West and Abingdon at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from LD | Nicola Blackwood | 10.6% | 42.3% | 42.0% | 176 | 65.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nicola Blackwood | 12.7% | 45.7% | 28.9% | 9,582 | 75.2%+9.9 |
| 2017 | LD gain from Con | Layla Moran | 12.6% | 42.4% | 43.7% | 816 | 79.4%+4.2 |
| 2019notional | Liberal Democrat winner | Layla Moran 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 11.8% | 34.1% | 52.2% | 9,577 | 73.5%-5.9 |
| 2024 | LD hold | Layla Moran | 13.0% | 18.5% | 50.9% | 14,894 | 65.9%-7.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Oxford West and Abingdon
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Oxford West and Abingdon. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate49.8 / 46.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave38.0 / 41.2vs 53.2
- ↓No quals9.4 / 10.6vs 18.0
- ↓Leave38.0 / 31.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate49.8 / 45.3vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3541.5 / 40.3vs 30.2
- ↓Leave38.0 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate49.8 / 44.5vs 33.7
- ↓No quals9.4 / 13.7vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate49.8 / 53.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave38.0 / 31.5vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3541.5 / 43.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate49.8 / 56.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave38.0 / 32.1vs 53.2
- ↓No quals9.4 / 9.8vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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