Constituency profile

Bath

South West · County constituency · Bath and North East Somerset borough

Wera Hobhouse MP
Sitting MP

Wera Hobhouse

Liberal Democrat

First elected June 2017

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency, Bath and North East Somerset council
Last 5 GE winners
LDCLDLDLD
Liberal Democrats 4/5, Conservative 1/5
EU referendum 2016
31.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -20.2pp below mean
Current outlook
Liberal Democrats +12.8pp
vs Reform UK 20.7%
SouthernStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavy

About the Bath constituency

Bath is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Wera Hobhouse (Liberal Democrat), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 41.3% to 18.0% for Labour, a majority of 11,218 votes on a 69.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 33.5% and Reform UK on 20.7%, a margin of 12.8 points.

Who lives in Bath? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
31.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
45.3%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
9.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
57.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
41.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
36.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
20.0%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
40.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Bath vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD hold · majority 11,218 votes (23.3pp) · turnout 69.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bath

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bath within Bath and North East Somerset

Bath sits entirely within Bath and North East Somerset Council. Bath and North East Somerset was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Bath and North East Somerset
63 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
9 Oct 2025Widcombe & Lyncombe
Bath & North East Somerset
LD HOLDLD 44% Grn 15% Lab 12%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Bathavon NorthLib Dem 44.8%vs Conservative 18.6%2023 Lib Dem 54.3%vs Conservative 26.1%-48.9%
BathwickLib Dem 43.3%vs Conservative 18.6%2023 Lib Dem 48.9%vs Conservative 29.1%-54.0%
Combe DownLib Dem 37.8%vs Conservative 20.9%2023 Lib Dem 52.0%vs Conservative 30.8%-49.2%
KingsmeadLib Dem 36.3%vs Labour 26.2%2023 Lib Dem 41.1%vs Labour 25.0%-39.9%
LambridgeLib Dem 36.7%vs Labour 20.8%2023 Green 45.3%vs Lib Dem 25.5%-52.3%
LansdownLib Dem 42.4%vs Conservative 18.3%2023 Lib Dem 48.5%vs Conservative 34.5%-43.4%
MoorlandsLib Dem 44.6%vs Labour 18.8%2023 Lib Dem 55.9%vs Conservative 22.5%-39.9%
NewbridgeLib Dem 44.3%vs Conservative 16.8%2023 Lib Dem 50.6%vs Conservative 24.4%-40.9%
Odd DownLib Dem 42.5%vs Labour 18.4%2023 Lib Dem 56.1%vs Conservative 20.3%-35.4%
Oldfield ParkLib Dem 46.8%vs Labour 16.0%2023 Lib Dem 43.5%vs Independent 23.4%-48.2%
SouthdownLib Dem 40.7%vs Labour 20.7%2023 Lib Dem 37.6%vs Independent 28.9%-37.4%
TwertonLib Dem 40.7%vs Labour 22.4%2023 Lib Dem 55.7%vs Labour 21.0%-23.0%
WalcotLib Dem 33.6%vs Labour 22.2%2023 Lib Dem 36.4%vs Labour 25.4%-44.7%
WestmorelandLib Dem 36.3%vs Labour 18.0%2023 Independent 49.2%vs Lib Dem 19.6%-44.9%
WestonLib Dem 43.8%vs Conservative 19.6%2023 Lib Dem 50.5%vs Conservative 32.5%-46.4%
Widcombe & LyncombeLib Dem 46.6%vs Conservative 16.5%2023 Lib Dem 56.5%vs Conservative 21.8%-52.8%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bath at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bath at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010LD holdDon Foster6.9%31.4%56.6%1.9% UKIP2.4%0.9%11,88370.6%
2015Con gain from LDBen Howlett13.2%37.8%29.7%6.2% UKIP11.9%1.2%3,83374.8%+4.2
2017LD gain from ConWera Hobhouse14.7%35.8%47.3%-2.3%-5,69474.3%-0.5
2019notionalLiberal Democrat winnerWera Hobhouse 2019 MP, pre-review boundary12.5%32.1%53.4%-0.3%1.7%12,12577.7%+3.4
2024LD holdWera Hobhouse18.0%15.9%41.3%7.9% Ref12.4%4.5%11,21869.1%-8.6

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Bath

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bath. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.