Edinburgh East and Musselburgh
Scotland · Burgh constituency
About the Edinburgh East and Musselburgh constituency
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh is a burgh constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Chris Murray (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.2% to 33.1% for the SNP, a majority of 3,715 votes on a 59.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 34.4% and Labour on 29.5%, a margin of 4.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Edinburgh East and Musselburgh? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Edinburgh East and Musselburgh vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Edinburgh East and Musselburgh
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Edinburgh East and Musselburgh voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent (56%), Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith (28%), Edinburgh Central (8%), Edinburgh Southern (4%), Midlothian North (2%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Edinburgh East and Musselburgh's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent | 56% | SNP 44.7% | Labour 28.9% | Kate Campbell |
| Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith | 28% | SNP 35.8% | Green 27.8% | Ben Macpherson |
| Edinburgh Central | 8% | Green 36.0% | Labour 23.0% | Lorna Slater |
| Edinburgh Southern | 4% | Labour 42.9% | SNP 30.3% | Daniel Johnson |
| Midlothian North | 2% | SNP 38.9% | Labour 30.3% | Colin Beattie |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh within City of Edinburgh and East Lothian
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh crosses council boundaries: City of Edinburgh (85%), East Lothian (15%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| City of Edinburgh | 85% |
| East Lothian | 15% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| City Centre | Labour 37.9%vs SNP 28.1% | 2022 SNP 24.5%Conservative 21.4%, Green 19.8%, Lib Dem 15.1%, Labour 14.6%, Independent 3.4%, Others 1.2% | - | - |
| Craigentinny / Duddingston | Labour 41.1%vs SNP 35.8% | 2022 SNP 36.7%Labour 20.6%, Conservative 19.4%, Green 16.5%, Lib Dem 6.7% | - | - |
| Leith | Labour 46.0%vs SNP 30.0% | 2022 SNP 32.6%Green 25.7%, Labour 21.4%, Conservative 9.1%, Independent 4.4%, Lib Dem 4.3%, Others 2.6% | - | - |
| Leith Walk | Labour 45.0%vs SNP 29.1% | 2022 SNP 30.7%Green 25.9%, Labour 18.7%, Lib Dem 12.0%, Conservative 6.9%, Others 5.7% | - | - |
| Meadows / Morningside | Labour 50.6%vs SNP 14.7% | No council data | - | - |
| Musselburgh East and Carberry | Labour 36.6%vs SNP 36.0% | No council data | - | - |
| Musselburgh West | Labour 36.6%vs SNP 36.0% | No council data | - | - |
| Portobello / Craigmillar | Labour 45.2%vs SNP 34.7% | 2022 SNP 37.4%Labour 23.9%, Green 16.2%, Conservative 15.3%, Lib Dem 4.3%, Independent 1.6%, Others 1.3% | - | - |
| Southside / Newington | Labour 50.9%vs SNP 18.0% | 2022 Labour 24.1%Green 23.1%, SNP 19.2%, Conservative 17.6%, Lib Dem 16.1% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Edinburgh East and Musselburgh at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Sheila Gilmore Edinburgh East MP | 43.4% | 10.9% | 19.4% | 20.4% | 9,181 | 65.4% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP gain from Lab | Tommy Sheppard Edinburgh East MP | 29.9% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 49.2% | 9,106 | 70.1%+4.7 |
| 2017predecessor | SNP hold | Tommy Sheppard Edinburgh East MP | 34.7% | 18.6% | 4.2% | 42.5% | 3,425 | 66.0%-4.1 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Tommy Sheppard Edinburgh East MP, pre-review boundary | 26.4% | 14.1% | 7.0% | 49.0% | 11,796 | 69.0% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Chris Murray | 41.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 33.1% | 3,715 | 59.8%-9.2 |
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Edinburgh East (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Edinburgh East and Musselburgh
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Edinburgh East and Musselburgh. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave31.5 / 27.9vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate53.8 / 56.6vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3543.2 / 40.3vs 30.2
- ↓Leave31.5 / 32.1vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate53.8 / 56.8vs 33.7
- ↓No quals11.1 / 9.8vs 18.0
- ↓Leave31.5 / 31.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate53.8 / 45.3vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3543.2 / 40.3vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate53.8 / 49.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave31.5 / 38.0vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3543.2 / 41.5vs 30.2
- ↓Leave31.5 / 28.2vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate53.8 / 53.1vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied54.1 / 56.8vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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