Aberdeen South
Scotland · Burgh constituency · Aberdeen City borough
About the Aberdeen South constituency
Aberdeen South is a burgh constituency in Scotland, covering most or all of Aberdeen City. The sitting MP is Douglas Lumsden (Conservative), first elected in June 2026.
At the 2024 general election, the SNP won Aberdeen South with 32.8% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 24.7%, a majority of 3,758 votes. Turnout was 59.9%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the SNP on 38.6% and the Conservatives on 22.5% in Aberdeen South, a margin of 16.1 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Aberdeen South is a strongly Remain-voting area (an estimated 32.1% voted Leave in 2016). About 56.8% of residents hold a degree, 56.0% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 38 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the SNP 3 times, Labour 1 time, the Conservatives 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Aberdeen South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Aberdeen South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Aberdeen South
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Aberdeen South voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Aberdeen South crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine (86%), Aberdeen Central (11%), Aberdeenshire West (3%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Aberdeen South | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine | 86% | SNP 34.1% | Conservative 30.5% | Stephen Flynn |
| Aberdeen Central | 11% | SNP 44.1% | Labour 18.4% | Jack Middleton |
| Aberdeenshire West | 3% | Conservative 42.9% | SNP 27.3% | Alexander Burnett |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Aberdeen South within Aberdeen City
The Westminster constituency of Aberdeen South sits entirely within Aberdeen City Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Aberdeen City was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Aberdeen City | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Aberdeen South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Aberdeen South at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Anne Begg | 36.5% | 20.7% | 28.4% | 3,506 | 67.2% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from Lab | Callum McCaig | 26.8% | 22.8% | 4.6% | 7,230 | 71.3%+4.1 |
| 2017 | Con gain from SNP | Ross Thomson | 20.5% | 42.1% | 5.9% | 4,752 | 68.5%-2.8 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Stephen Flynn 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 8.8% | 34.4% | 10.7% | 5,463 | 65.5%-3.0 |
| 2024 | SNP hold | Stephen Flynn | 24.7% | 24.4% | 6.3% | 3,758 | 59.9%-5.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Aberdeen South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aberdeen South. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate56.8 / 56.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave32.1 / 27.9vs 53.2
- ↓No quals9.8 / 10.1vs 18.0
- ↓Leave32.1 / 31.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate56.8 / 53.8vs 33.7
- ↓No quals9.8 / 11.1vs 18.0
- ↓Leave32.1 / 31.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate56.8 / 45.3vs 33.7
- ↓No quals9.8 / 9.8vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate56.8 / 49.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave32.1 / 38.0vs 53.2
- ↓No quals9.8 / 9.4vs 18.0
- ↓Leave32.1 / 28.2vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate56.8 / 53.1vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied56.0 / 56.8vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.