Aberdeen South
Scotland · Burgh constituency · Aberdeen City
About the Aberdeen South constituency
Aberdeen South is a burgh constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Douglas Lumsden (Conservative), MP since June 2026. At the 2024 general election, the SNP won with 32.8% to 24.7% for Labour, a majority of 3,758 votes on a 59.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 29.3% and the SNP on 27.7%, a margin of 1.6 points - a projected change of hands from the SNP relative to the 2024 result.
Who lives in Aberdeen South? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Aberdeen South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Aberdeen South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Aberdeen South voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Aberdeen South crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine (86%), Aberdeen Central (11%), Aberdeenshire West (3%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Aberdeen South's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine | 86% | SNP 34.1% | Conservative 30.5% | Stephen Flynn |
| Aberdeen Central | 11% | SNP 44.1% | Labour 18.4% | Jack Middleton |
| Aberdeenshire West | 3% | Conservative 42.9% | SNP 27.3% | Alexander Burnett |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Aberdeen South within Aberdeen City
Aberdeen South sits entirely within Aberdeen City Council. Aberdeen City was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Aberdeen City | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airyhall / Broomhill / Garthdee | SNP 32.7%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 36.5%SNP 27.5%, Conservative 21.1%, Labour 10.7%, Green 4.2% | - | - |
| George St / Harbour | SNP 41.0%vs Labour 29.3% | 2022 SNP 42.2%Labour 19.8%, Green 13.8%, Lib Dem 11.4%, Conservative 10.9%, Independent 1.8% | - | - |
| Lower Deeside | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 33.2% | 2022 Conservative 30.1%Labour 23.8%, Independent 21.7%, SNP 15.3%, Lib Dem 4.6%, Green 4.5% | - | 54.9% |
| Midstocket / Rosemount | SNP 34.1%vs Labour 32.7% | 2022 SNP 37.8%Conservative 24.5%, Labour 21.5%, Green 9.3%, Lib Dem 7.0% | - | - |
| Tillydrone / Seaton / Old Aberdeen | Labour 39.1%vs SNP 37.7% | 2022 SNP 43.3%Labour 26.0%, Conservative 10.7%, Green 7.3%, Others 5.2%, Lib Dem 4.5%, Independent 2.9% | - | - |
| Torry / Ferryhill | SNP 39.4%vs Labour 26.3% | 2022 SNP 39.8%Conservative 19.4%, Labour 17.3%, Green 7.8%, Lib Dem 6.4%, Independent 6.3%, Others 3.0% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Aberdeen South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Aberdeen South at past elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Anne Begg | 36.5% | 20.7% | 28.4% | 11.9% | 3,506 | 67.2% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from Lab | Callum McCaig | 26.8% | 22.8% | 4.6% | 41.6% | 7,230 | 71.3%+4.1 |
| 2017 | Con gain from SNP | Ross Thomson | 20.5% | 42.1% | 5.9% | 31.5% | 4,752 | 68.5%-2.8 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Stephen Flynn 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 8.8% | 34.4% | 10.7% | 45.3% | 5,463 | 65.5%-3.0 |
| 2024 | SNP hold | Stephen Flynn | 24.7% | 24.4% | 6.3% | 32.8% | 3,758 | 59.9%-5.6 |
| 2026by-election | Con gain from SNP | Douglas Lumsden | 5.4% | 49.5% | 4.4% | 28.6% | 6,050 | 38.0% |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced. By-elections are on the boundaries in force at the time and usually have much lower turnout than a general election.
Constituencies most like Aberdeen South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aberdeen South. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate56.8 / 56.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave32.1 / 27.9vs 53.2
- ↓No quals9.8 / 10.1vs 18.0
- ↓Leave32.1 / 31.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate56.8 / 53.8vs 33.7
- ↓No quals9.8 / 11.1vs 18.0
- ↓Leave32.1 / 31.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate56.8 / 45.3vs 33.7
- ↓No quals9.8 / 9.8vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate56.8 / 49.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave32.1 / 38.0vs 53.2
- ↓No quals9.8 / 9.4vs 18.0
- ↓Leave32.1 / 28.2vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate56.8 / 53.1vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied56.0 / 56.8vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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