Constituency profile

York Central

Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · York borough

Rachael Maskell MP
Sitting MP

Rachael Maskell

Labour (Co-op)

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
Borough constituency, York council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
38.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -13.1pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +30.4pp
vs Reform UK 15.2%
NorthernRemain-leaning

About the York Central constituency

York Central is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Rachael Maskell (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 56.6% to 12.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 19,154 votes on a 54.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 45.5% and Reform UK on 15.2%, a margin of 30.4 points.

Who lives in York Central? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
38.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
38.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
12.6%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
52.6%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
46.5%
UK average ~36%
Median age
33.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
16.0%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
45.3%
UK average ~28%

How did York Central vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 19,154 votes (44.2pp) · turnout 54.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of York Central

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

York Central within York

York Central sits entirely within York Council. York was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
York
63 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
15 Jan 2026Heworth
York
Lab HOLDLab 37% Grn 20% Ref 20%
5 Jul 2024Hull Road
York
Lab HOLD—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AcombLabour 55.8%vs Conservative 17.1%2023 Labour 68.3%vs Conservative 17.0%-32.2%
CliftonLabour 58.2%vs Conservative 12.7%2023 Labour 64.8%vs Lib Dem 14.2%-32.6%
FishergateLabour 52.5%vs Green 20.7%2023 Labour 59.9%vs Green 30.2%-47.8%
GuildhallLabour 53.2%vs Green 16.3%2023 Labour 56.3%vs Green 26.9%-35.5%
HeworthLabour 57.1%vs Conservative 13.5%2023 Labour 69.2%vs Green 13.4%-35.2%
HolgateLabour 59.3%vs Conservative 12.3%2023 Labour 74.2%vs Conservative 10.4%-38.1%
Hull RoadLabour 55.7%vs Green 12.5%2023 Labour 55.5%vs Lib Dem 23.0%-34.2%
MicklegateLabour 63.0%vs Conservative 11.5%2023 Labour 68.7%vs Green 18.6%-49.7%
WestfieldLabour 51.2%vs Lib Dem 15.7%2023 Labour 45.5%vs Lib Dem 42.5%-34.2%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for York Central at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won York Central at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdHugh Bayley40.0%26.1%25.2%2.4% UKIP3.6%2.9%6,45160.8%
2015Lab holdRachael Maskell42.4%28.3%8.0%10.1% UKIP10.0%1.2%6,71663.3%+2.5
2017Lab holdRachael Maskell65.2%30.2%4.7%---18,57568.7%+5.4
2019notionalLabour winnerRachael Maskell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary56.4%27.8%7.8%-4.2%3.8%14,34266.9%-1.8
2024Lab holdRachael Maskell56.6%12.4%7.0%10.9% Ref12.0%1.0%19,15454.5%-12.4

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like York Central

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to York Central. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.