York Central
Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · York borough
About the York Central constituency
York Central is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Rachael Maskell (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 56.6% to 12.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 19,154 votes on a 54.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 45.5% and Reform UK on 15.2%, a margin of 30.4 points.
Who lives in York Central? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did York Central vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of York Central
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
York Central within York
York Central sits entirely within York Council. York was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| York | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | Heworth | Lab HOLD | Lab 37% Grn 20% Ref 20% |
| 5 Jul 2024 | Hull Road | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acomb | Labour 55.8%vs Conservative 17.1% | 2023 Labour 68.3%vs Conservative 17.0% | - | 32.2% |
| Clifton | Labour 58.2%vs Conservative 12.7% | 2023 Labour 64.8%vs Lib Dem 14.2% | - | 32.6% |
| Fishergate | Labour 52.5%vs Green 20.7% | 2023 Labour 59.9%vs Green 30.2% | - | 47.8% |
| Guildhall | Labour 53.2%vs Green 16.3% | 2023 Labour 56.3%vs Green 26.9% | - | 35.5% |
| Heworth | Labour 57.1%vs Conservative 13.5% | 2023 Labour 69.2%vs Green 13.4% | - | 35.2% |
| Holgate | Labour 59.3%vs Conservative 12.3% | 2023 Labour 74.2%vs Conservative 10.4% | - | 38.1% |
| Hull Road | Labour 55.7%vs Green 12.5% | 2023 Labour 55.5%vs Lib Dem 23.0% | - | 34.2% |
| Micklegate | Labour 63.0%vs Conservative 11.5% | 2023 Labour 68.7%vs Green 18.6% | - | 49.7% |
| Westfield | Labour 51.2%vs Lib Dem 15.7% | 2023 Labour 45.5%vs Lib Dem 42.5% | - | 34.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for York Central at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won York Central at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Hugh Bayley | 40.0% | 26.1% | 25.2% | 6,451 | 60.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Rachael Maskell | 42.4% | 28.3% | 8.0% | 6,716 | 63.3%+2.5 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Rachael Maskell | 65.2% | 30.2% | 4.7% | 18,575 | 68.7%+5.4 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Rachael Maskell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 56.4% | 27.8% | 7.8% | 14,342 | 66.9%-1.8 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Rachael Maskell | 56.6% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 19,154 | 54.5%-12.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like York Central
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to York Central. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Under 3545.3 / 43.9vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied52.6 / 54.0vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent28.0 / 27.6vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3545.3 / 43.4vs 30.2
- ↓Leave38.8 / 31.3vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied52.6 / 47.9vs 61.9
- ↓Leave38.8 / 31.7vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3545.3 / 40.3vs 30.2
- ↓No quals12.6 / 9.8vs 18.0
- ↓Leave38.8 / 40.5vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3545.3 / 42.4vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent28.0 / 28.4vs 20.2
- ↓Leave38.8 / 34.8vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied52.6 / 52.0vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent28.0 / 25.2vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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