Exeter
South West · Borough constituency · Exeter borough
About the Exeter constituency
Exeter is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Steve Race (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.3% to 15.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 11,937 votes on a 59.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.7% and Reform UK on 25.1%, a margin of 13.6 points.
Who lives in Exeter? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Exeter vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Exeter
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Exeter within Exeter
Exeter sits entirely within Exeter Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphington | Labour 45.6%vs Conservative 21.5% | May 2026 Labour 31.7%vs Reform 27.8% | Labour share -13.9pp | 47.5% |
| Duryard and St James | Labour 40.0%vs Lib Dem 19.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.3%vs Green 30.8% | Labour→Lib Dem +25.1pp | 39.0% |
| Exwick | Labour 49.5%vs Conservative 16.4% | May 2026 Labour 34.6%vs Reform 30.5% | Labour share -15.0pp | 41.8% |
| Heavitree | Labour 44.5%vs Green 18.5% | May 2026 Green 52.8%vs Reform 19.0% | Labour→Green +32.2pp | 53.7% |
| Mincinglake and Whipton | Labour 49.6%vs Conservative 16.2% | May 2026 Reform 34.1%vs Green 29.1% | Labour→Reform +23.4pp | 43.5% |
| Newtown and St Leonard's | Labour 45.0%vs Green 20.0% | May 2026 Green 47.3%vs Labour 27.7% | Labour→Green +22.3pp | 46.1% |
| Pennsylvania | Labour 45.6%vs Conservative 16.4% | May 2026 Green 38.6%vs Lib Dem 18.3% | Labour→Green +25.6pp | 48.4% |
| Priory | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 18.1% | May 2026 Reform 28.9%vs Labour 28.5% | Labour→Reform +17.5pp | 43.8% |
| St David's | Labour 42.8%vs Green 22.0% | May 2026 Green 57.1%vs Labour 15.7% | Labour→Green +31.1pp | 30.9% |
| St Thomas | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 15.6% | May 2026 Green 37.0%vs Lib Dem 23.7% | Labour→Green +27.4pp | 49.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Exeter at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Exeter at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Ben Bradshaw | 38.2% | 33.0% | 20.3% | 2,721 | 67.7% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Ben Bradshaw | 46.4% | 33.1% | 4.3% | 7,183 | 70.2%+2.5 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Ben Bradshaw | 62.0% | 32.9% | 2.8% | 16,117 | 71.7%+1.5 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Ben Bradshaw 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 54.8% | 32.1% | 0.0% | 10,988 | 67.4%-4.3 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Steve Race | 45.3% | 15.6% | 10.5% | 11,937 | 59.2%-8.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Exeter
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Exeter. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Under 3543.9 / 45.3vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.0 / 52.6vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent27.6 / 28.0vs 20.2
- ↓Leave44.8 / 45.3vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3543.9 / 38.2vs 30.2
- ↓Employed51.5 / 48.6vs 57.3
- ↑Under 3543.9 / 41.5vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.0 / 52.9vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent27.6 / 26.4vs 20.2
- ↓Leave44.8 / 43.4vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.0 / 50.4vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3543.9 / 37.3vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.0 / 52.0vs 61.9
- ↓Leave44.8 / 34.8vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent27.6 / 25.2vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.