Lincoln
East Midlands · Borough constituency
About the Lincoln constituency
Lincoln is a borough constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Mr Hamish Falconer (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.8% to 22.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,793 votes on a 58.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.5% and Reform UK on 28.1%, a margin of 6.4 points.
Who lives in Lincoln? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Lincoln vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Lincoln
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Lincoln within Lincoln and North Kesteven
Lincoln crosses council boundaries: Lincoln (90%), North Kesteven (10%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 90% | View projection › |
| North Kesteven | 10% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2025 | Bracebridge Heath | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey | Labour 43.5%vs Reform 18.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.5%vs Green 18.4% | Labour→Lib Dem +28.6pp | - |
| Birchwood | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 25.8% | May 2026 Reform 38.5%vs Conservative 24.9% | Labour→Reform +22.8pp | - |
| Boultham | Labour 47.7%vs Conservative 20.0% | May 2026 Labour 29.7%vs Reform 27.8% | Labour share -18.0pp | - |
| Bracebridge Heath | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Conservative 59.5%vs Labour 40.5% | - | - |
| Carholme | Labour 50.5%vs Reform 18.0% | May 2026 Labour 36.8%vs Green 32.2% | Labour share -13.7pp | - |
| Castle | Labour 49.0%vs Conservative 19.1% | May 2026 Labour 34.8%vs Reform 30.1% | Labour share -14.2pp | - |
| Glebe | Labour 41.4%vs Reform 20.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 37.1%vs Reform 30.8% | Labour→Lib Dem +27.6pp | - |
| Hartsholme | Labour 43.0%vs Conservative 25.8% | May 2026 Reform 40.3%vs Conservative 22.0% | Labour→Reform +23.9pp | - |
| Minster | Labour 46.1%vs Conservative 24.8% | May 2026 Labour 37.4%vs Reform 33.0% | Labour share -8.8pp | - |
| Moorland | Labour 43.4%vs Conservative 23.6% | May 2026 Reform 44.2%vs Labour 18.5% | Labour→Reform +24.7pp | - |
| Park | Labour 47.9%vs Reform 19.4% | May 2026 Green 30.3%vs Lib Dem 22.6% | Labour→Green +27.6pp | - |
| Skellingthorpe & Eagle | Conservative 33.9%vs Labour 30.1% | 2023 Independent 61.0%vs Conservative 15.1% | - | - |
| Waddington Rural | Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 53.0%vs Labour 30.2% | - | - |
| Witham | Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 29.8% | May 2026 Reform 37.8%vs Conservative 24.0% | Labour→Reform +21.1pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Lincoln at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Lincoln at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Karl McCartney | 35.2% | 37.5% | 20.2% | 1,058 | 62.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Karl McCartney | 39.6% | 42.6% | 4.3% | 1,443 | 63.2%+1.0 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Karen Lee | 47.9% | 44.7% | 2.6% | 1,538 | 66.6%+3.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Karl McCartney 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 41.0% | 47.9% | 4.8% | 3,514 | 68.3%+1.7 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Hamish Falconer | 43.8% | 23.0% | 6.1% | 8,793 | 58.3%-10.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Lincoln
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Lincoln. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied52.9 / 50.8vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3541.5 / 38.6vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent26.4 / 25.3vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied52.9 / 51.2vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent26.4 / 25.7vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3541.5 / 37.9vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied52.9 / 55.1vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent26.4 / 31.5vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3541.5 / 41.2vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied52.9 / 45.1vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+17.9 / 16.8vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.9 / 53.4vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent26.4 / 25.1vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.