Southampton Itchen
South East · Borough constituency · Southampton borough
About the Southampton Itchen constituency
Southampton Itchen is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Darren Paffey (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.5% to 25.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,105 votes on a 55.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 35.3% and Reform UK on 30.6%, a margin of 4.7 points.
Who lives in Southampton Itchen? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Southampton Itchen vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Southampton Itchen
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Southampton Itchen within Southampton
Southampton Itchen sits entirely within Southampton Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banister & Polygon | Labour 43.4%vs Reform 19.4% | May 2026 Green 38.7%vs Labour 27.4% | Labour→Green +21.6pp | 36.4% |
| Bargate | Labour 46.2%vs Conservative 19.7% | May 2026 Green 27.9%vs Labour 26.5% | Labour→Green +19.7pp | 29.7% |
| Bitterne Park | Labour 38.9%vs Conservative 27.6% | May 2026 Labour 27.1%vs Conservative 23.8% | Labour share -11.8pp | 45.9% |
| Harefield | Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 30.0% | May 2026 Reform 33.4%vs Conservative 26.7% | Labour→Reform +18.0pp | 36.4% |
| Peartree | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 27.7% | May 2026 Reform 31.4%vs Conservative 29.4% | Labour→Reform +20.1pp | 40.3% |
| Sholing | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 29.9% | May 2026 Reform 37.1%vs Conservative 22.7% | Labour→Reform +20.8pp | 37.5% |
| Thornhill | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 23.4% | May 2026 Reform 41.6%vs Labour 21.5% | Labour→Reform +20.6pp | 29.8% |
| Woolston | Labour 43.3%vs Conservative 24.1% | May 2026 Reform 35.5%vs Labour 23.3% | Labour→Reform +18.9pp | 32.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Southampton Itchen at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Southampton Itchen at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | John Denham | 36.8% | 36.3% | 20.8% | 192 | 59.6% |
| 2015 | Con gain from Lab | Royston Smith | 36.5% | 41.7% | 3.6% | 2,316 | 61.9%+2.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Royston Smith | 46.5% | 46.5% | 3.0% | 31 | 65.2%+3.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Royston Smith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 41.0% | 50.5% | 5.3% | 4,498 | 65.7%+0.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Darren Paffey | 41.5% | 25.4% | 7.1% | 6,105 | 55.7%-10.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Southampton Itchen
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Southampton Itchen. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied50.8 / 53.4vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent25.3 / 25.1vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate29.2 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied50.8 / 51.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.3 / 64.0vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3538.6 / 36.5vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied50.8 / 52.9vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3538.6 / 41.5vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent25.3 / 26.4vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied50.8 / 52.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.3 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3538.6 / 36.0vs 30.2
- ↑Leave60.3 / 66.2vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied50.8 / 56.6vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate29.2 / 24.1vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.