Constituency profile

Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham

Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency

Dame Diana Johnson MP
Sitting MP

Dame Diana Johnson

Labour

First elected May 2005

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
64.0% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +12.1pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +4.8pp
vs Reform UK 29.4%
NorthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham constituency

Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Dame Diana Johnson (Labour), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 48.3% to 20.4% for Reform UK, a majority of 10,679 votes on a 50.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.2% and Reform UK on 29.4%, a margin of 4.8 points.

Who lives in Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
64.0%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.9%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
22.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
51.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
48.3%
UK average ~36%
Median age
36.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
18.8%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
36.5%
UK average ~28%

How did Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 10,679 votes (27.9pp) · turnout 50.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham within Kingston upon Hull, City of and East Riding of Yorkshire

Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham crosses council boundaries: Kingston upon Hull, City of (84%), East Riding of Yorkshire (16%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Kingston upon Hull, City of
62 LSOAs
84%
East Riding of Yorkshire
12 LSOAs
16%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AvenueLabour 57.6%vs Reform 16.9%May 2026 Lib Dem 44.8%vs Green 23.9%
Labour→Lib Dem
+38.4pp
-
Beverley & NewlandLabour 44.4%vs Reform 22.2%May 2026 Lib Dem 50.9%vs Reform 22.5%
Labour→Lib Dem
+36.0pp
-
BricknellLabour 54.1%vs Conservative 19.9%May 2026 Labour 32.5%vs Lib Dem 29.9%
Labour share
-21.6pp
-
CentralLabour 50.1%vs Reform 23.0%May 2026 Lib Dem 31.3%vs Labour 28.4%
Labour→Lib Dem
+23.2pp
-
Cottingham NorthLabour 41.6%vs Reform 19.1%2023 Lib Dem 36.8%vs Labour 33.6%-36.5%
Cottingham SouthLabour 44.2%vs Conservative 21.9%2023 Labour 49.1%vs Conservative 37.3%-34.8%
KingswoodLabour 39.7%vs Reform 22.8%2024 Lib Dem 65.6%vs Labour 25.9%--
Orchard ParkLabour 50.6%vs Reform 24.2%May 2026 Reform 45.4%vs Labour 25.2%
Labour→Reform
+23.3pp
-
UniversityLabour 51.9%vs Reform 22.1%May 2026 Lib Dem 39.1%vs Reform 30.1%
Labour→Lib Dem
+35.0pp
-
West CarrLabour 43.6%vs Reform 24.1%May 2026 Reform 44.5%vs Lib Dem 38.4%
Labour→Reform
+27.8pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdDiana Johnson Kingston upon Hull North MP39.2%13.1%37.3%4.1% UKIP1.4%4.9%64152.0%
2015predecessorLab holdDiana Johnson Kingston upon Hull North MP52.8%15.0%9.0%16.3% UKIP5.8%1.0%12,89955.1%+3.1
2017predecessorLab holdDiana Johnson Kingston upon Hull North MP63.8%25.2%5.0%4.3% UKIP1.6%-14,32257.4%+2.3
2019notionalLabour winnerDiana Johnson Kingston upon Hull North MP, pre-review boundary46.6%33.5%6.5%-2.6%10.8%5,92259.1%
2024Lab holdDiana Johnson48.3%12.8%8.5%20.4% Ref6.1%3.9%10,67950.8%-8.3

Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Kingston upon Hull North (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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