Northampton North
East Midlands · Borough constituency · West Northamptonshire borough
About the Northampton North constituency
Northampton North is a borough constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Lucy Rigby (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.5% to 22.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,014 votes on a 55.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.4% and Reform UK on 26.5%, a margin of 4.9 points.
Who lives in Northampton North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Northampton North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Northampton North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Northampton North within West Northamptonshire
Northampton North sits entirely within West Northamptonshire Council. West Northamptonshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| West Northamptonshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abington and Phippsville | Labour 47.7%vs Conservative 19.8% | 2021 Labour 56.1%vs Conservative 30.0% | - | - |
| Boothville and Parklands | Conservative 34.1%vs Labour 33.8% | 2021 Conservative 63.2%vs Labour 28.8% | - | - |
| Castle | Labour 51.7%vs Reform 18.5% | 2021 Labour 62.6%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | - |
| Dallington Spencer | Labour 45.3%vs Conservative 18.1% | 2021 Labour 68.5%vs Conservative 27.5% | - | - |
| Headlands | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 23.6% | 2021 Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 34.6% | - | - |
| Kingsthorpe North | Labour 34.8%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2021 Conservative 44.7%vs Green 22.5% | - | - |
| Kingsthorpe South | Labour 41.4%vs Conservative 21.8% | 2021 Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 33.2% | - | - |
| St. George | Labour 44.8%vs Conservative 18.7% | 2021 Labour 54.6%vs Conservative 28.8% | - | - |
| Talavera | Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 19.2% | 2021 Labour 38.3%vs Lib Dem 34.5% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Northampton North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Northampton North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Michael Ellis | 29.3% | 34.1% | 27.9% | 1,936 | 65.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Michael Ellis | 34.1% | 42.4% | 3.6% | 3,245 | 66.6%+1.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Michael Ellis | 45.2% | 47.2% | 2.5% | 807 | 68.6%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Michael Ellis 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 42.1% | 49.8% | 5.7% | 3,932 | 67.5%-1.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Lucy Rigby | 43.5% | 22.0% | 5.4% | 9,014 | 55.3%-12.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Northampton North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Northampton North. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied52.0 / 53.4vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.7 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent27.1 / 25.1vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied52.0 / 50.8vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.3 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3536.0 / 38.6vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied52.0 / 50.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.3 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3536.0 / 36.2vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate27.7 / 27.5vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.0 / 55.8vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+17.5 / 16.6vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate27.7 / 26.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.3 / 58.8vs 53.2
- ↑Employed61.9 / 61.4vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.