Crawley
South East · Borough constituency · Crawley borough
About the Crawley constituency
Crawley is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Peter Lamb (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.2% to 26.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,235 votes on a 60.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 33.7% and Reform UK on 32.7%, a margin of 1.1 points.
Who lives in Crawley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Crawley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Crawley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Crawley within Crawley
Crawley sits entirely within Crawley Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. In addition, the West Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley | 100% | View projection › |
West Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bewbush & Ifield West | Ref | Ref 36% Lab 27% Con 14% | 38.1% |
| Broadfield | Lab | Lab 34% Ref 34% Con 14% | 37.1% |
| Langley Green & Ifield East | Ref | Ref 34% Lab 29% Grn 16% | 40.1% |
| Maidenbower & Worth | Ref | Ref 33% Con 31% Grn 13% | 48.8% |
| Northgate & West Green | Ref | Ref 33% Lab 26% Grn 17% | 37.6% |
| Pound Hill | Ref | Ref 32% Con 26% Lab 22% | 46.7% |
| Southgate & Gossops Green | Ref | Ref 35% Con 25% Lab 21% | 44.1% |
| Three Bridges | Ref | Ref 28% Lab 27% Con 23% | 44.5% |
| Tilgate & Furnace Green | Ref | Ref 36% Con 28% Lab 18% | 46.6% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bewbush & North Broadfield | Labour 43.8%vs Conservative 21.8% | May 2026 Reform 32.6%vs Labour 30.6% | Labour→Reform +13.0pp | 27.3% |
| Broadfield | Labour 38.3%vs Conservative 22.3% | 2024 Labour 54.5%vs Conservative 28.4% | - | 24.3% |
| Furnace Green | Conservative 36.4%vs Labour 34.8% | May 2026 Reform 33.9%vs Conservative 28.1% | Conservative→Reform +14.6pp | 49.0% |
| Gossops Green & North East Broadfield | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 28.2% | 2024 Labour 51.6%vs Conservative 31.5% | - | 37.8% |
| Ifield | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 26.1% | May 2026 Reform 39.0%vs Labour 24.9% | Labour→Reform +17.8pp | 41.9% |
| Langley Green & Tushmore | Labour 39.5%vs Conservative 22.8% | May 2026 Labour 32.5%vs Reform 29.8% | Labour share -7.0pp | 37.9% |
| Maidenbower | Labour 30.3%vs Conservative 29.9% | May 2026 Reform 35.5%vs Conservative 24.9% | Labour→Reform +16.8pp | 46.9% |
| Northgate & West Green | Labour 41.6%vs Conservative 22.9% | May 2026 Reform 34.1%vs Labour 27.4% | Labour→Reform +14.6pp | 38.9% |
| Pound Hill North & Forge Wood | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 27.9% | May 2026 Reform 31.9%vs Conservative 25.6% | Labour→Reform +12.6pp | 46.4% |
| Pound Hill South & Worth | Labour 34.8%vs Conservative 31.7% | May 2026 Reform 30.7%vs Conservative 30.7% | Labour→Reform +14.8pp | 50.0% |
| Southgate | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 26.4% | May 2026 Reform 33.6%vs Conservative 25.7% | Labour→Reform +15.9pp | 42.3% |
| Three Bridges | Labour 40.5%vs Conservative 26.5% | May 2026 Labour 30.9%vs Reform 28.1% | Labour share -9.7pp | 42.0% |
| Tilgate | Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 27.9% | May 2026 Reform 43.1%vs Conservative 22.6% | Labour→Reform +21.0pp | 44.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Crawley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Crawley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Henry Smith | 32.3% | 44.8% | 14.4% | 5,928 | 65.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Henry Smith | 33.6% | 47.0% | 2.8% | 6,526 | 65.7%+0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Henry Smith | 45.7% | 50.6% | 3.7% | 2,457 | 68.5%+2.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Henry Smith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 37.4% | 54.2% | 5.5% | 8,360 | 67.0%-1.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Peter Lamb | 38.2% | 26.8% | 4.8% | 5,235 | 60.4%-6.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Crawley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Crawley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed63.0 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 28.4vs 33.7
- ↓Age 65+16.6 / 18.1vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied55.8 / 54.6vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+16.6 / 19.4vs 22.7
- ↑Social rent22.9 / 19.6vs 16.8
- ↑Employed63.0 / 65.0vs 57.3
- ↑Leave58.4 / 57.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 30.0vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent22.9 / 22.5vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.4 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied55.8 / 55.8vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 25.9vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent22.9 / 26.5vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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