Crawley
South East · Borough constituency · Crawley borough
About the Crawley constituency
Crawley is a borough constituency in the South East, covering most or all of Crawley. The sitting MP is Peter Lamb (Labour), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Crawley with 38.2% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 26.8%, a majority of 5,235 votes. Turnout was 60.4%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 33.1% and Labour on 29.7% in Crawley, a margin of 3.4 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Crawley is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 58.4% voted Leave in 2016). About 27.5% of residents hold a degree, 55.8% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 37 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Conservatives 4 times, Labour 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Crawley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Crawley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Crawley
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Crawley within Crawley
The Westminster constituency of Crawley sits entirely within Crawley Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026. In addition, the West Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley | 100% | View projection › |
West Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bewbush & Ifield West | Ref | Ref 36% Lab 27% Con 14% | 38.1% |
| Broadfield | Lab | Lab 34% Ref 34% Con 14% | 37.1% |
| Langley Green & Ifield East | Ref | Ref 34% Lab 29% Grn 16% | 40.1% |
| Maidenbower & Worth | Ref | Ref 33% Con 31% Grn 13% | 48.8% |
| Northgate & West Green | Ref | Ref 33% Lab 26% Grn 17% | 37.6% |
| Pound Hill | Ref | Ref 32% Con 26% Lab 22% | 46.7% |
| Southgate & Gossops Green | Ref | Ref 35% Con 25% Lab 21% | 44.1% |
| Three Bridges | Ref | Ref 28% Lab 27% Con 23% | 44.5% |
| Tilgate & Furnace Green | Ref | Ref 36% Con 28% Lab 18% | 46.6% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Crawley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Crawley at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Henry Smith | 32.3% | 44.8% | 14.4% | 5,928 | 65.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Henry Smith | 33.6% | 47.0% | 2.8% | 6,526 | 65.7%+0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Henry Smith | 45.7% | 50.6% | 3.7% | 2,457 | 68.5%+2.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Henry Smith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 37.4% | 54.2% | 5.5% | 8,360 | 67.0%-1.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Peter Lamb | 38.2% | 26.8% | 4.8% | 5,235 | 60.4%-6.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Crawley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Crawley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed63.0 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 28.4vs 33.7
- ↓Age 65+16.6 / 18.1vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied55.8 / 54.6vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+16.6 / 19.4vs 22.7
- ↑Social rent22.9 / 19.6vs 16.8
- ↑Employed63.0 / 65.0vs 57.3
- ↑Leave58.4 / 57.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 30.0vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent22.9 / 22.5vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.4 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied55.8 / 55.8vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 25.9vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent22.9 / 26.5vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.