Aldershot
South East · Borough constituency
About the Aldershot constituency
Aldershot is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Alex Baker (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.7% to 29.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,683 votes on a 61.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 32.6% and Reform UK on 29.2%, a margin of 3.3 points.
Who lives in Aldershot? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Aldershot vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Aldershot
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Aldershot within Rushmoor and Hart
Aldershot crosses council boundaries: Rushmoor (84%), Hart (16%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Rushmoor | 84% | View projection › |
| Hart | 16% | View projection › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot North | Ref | Ref 32% Lab 32% Con 17% | 38.3% |
| Aldershot South | Ref | Ref 30% Lab 29% Con 23% | 0.0% |
| Farnborough North | Ref | Ref 32% Con 27% Lab 23% | 40.4% |
| Farnborough South | Con | Con 27% Ref 26% LD 20% | 44.9% |
| Farnborough West | Ref | Ref 31% Con 28% Lab 21% | 44.1% |
| Yateley East & Blackwater | LD | LD 43% Ref 31% Con 15% | 43.1% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | Wellington | Lab HOLD | Lab 42% Con 20% Ref 20% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot Park | Labour 48.9%vs Conservative 22.0% | May 2026 Reform 38.4%vs Labour 31.5% | Labour→Reform +19.2pp | 35.7% |
| Blackwater and Hawley | Labour 35.0%vs Conservative 28.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.1%vs Reform 32.2% | Labour→Lib Dem +29.5pp | - |
| Cherrywood | Labour 48.0%vs Conservative 23.4% | May 2026 Reform 31.4%vs Labour 29.7% | Labour→Reform +16.3pp | 35.8% |
| Cove and Southwood | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 34.6% | May 2026 Conservative 30.3%vs Reform 28.3% | Labour→Conservative +6.5pp | 43.0% |
| Empress | Labour 42.7%vs Conservative 30.8% | May 2026 Labour 31.0%vs Conservative 23.7% | Labour share -11.7pp | 46.5% |
| Fernhill | Labour 39.3%vs Conservative 29.8% | May 2026 Reform 41.6%vs Conservative 19.5% | Labour→Reform +23.2pp | 40.5% |
| Knellwood | Conservative 36.7%vs Labour 35.2% | May 2026 Conservative 31.8%vs Reform 26.3% | Conservative share -4.9pp | 51.5% |
| Manor Park | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 29.4% | May 2026 Conservative 34.9%vs Reform 24.4% | Labour→Conservative +13.1pp | 46.8% |
| North Town | Labour 52.0%vs Conservative 20.2% | May 2026 Labour 45.8%vs Reform 38.7% | Labour share -6.2pp | 39.1% |
| Rowhill | Labour 44.0%vs Conservative 28.6% | May 2026 Reform 33.6%vs Labour 32.7% | Labour→Reform +14.6pp | 46.3% |
| St John's | Labour 38.9%vs Conservative 31.3% | May 2026 Reform 32.7%vs Conservative 29.9% | Labour→Reform +13.9pp | 44.1% |
| St Mark's | Labour 35.4%vs Conservative 26.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 28.3%vs Reform 27.7% | Labour→Lib Dem +20.9pp | 38.9% |
| Wellington | Labour 43.4%vs Conservative 25.4% | May 2026 Labour 33.3%vs Reform 27.7% | Labour share -10.1pp | 31.7% |
| West Heath | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 33.0% | May 2026 Conservative 31.2%vs Reform 30.6% | Labour→Conservative +8.9pp | 45.1% |
| Yateley East | Labour 31.7%vs Conservative 30.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 47.4%vs Reform 32.1% | Labour→Lib Dem +31.4pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Aldershot at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Aldershot at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Gerald Howarth | 12.1% | 46.7% | 34.4% | 5,586 | 63.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Gerald Howarth | 18.3% | 50.6% | 8.8% | 14,901 | 63.8%+0.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Leo Docherty | 31.6% | 55.1% | 7.4% | 11,473 | 64.2%+0.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Leo Docherty 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 22.1% | 56.8% | 17.5% | 17,985 | 67.5%+3.3 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Alex Baker | 40.7% | 29.0% | 8.3% | 5,683 | 61.8%-5.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Aldershot
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aldershot. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed65.0 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↑Employed65.0 / 64.4vs 57.3
- ↑Leave57.9 / 59.0vs 53.2
- ↑Leave57.9 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↑Employed65.0 / 61.8vs 57.3
- ↑Employed65.0 / 64.2vs 57.3
- ↑Leave57.9 / 58.4vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.