Aylesbury
South East · County constituency · Buckinghamshire borough
About the Aylesbury constituency
Aylesbury is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Laura Kyrke-Smith (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 30.2% to 28.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 630 votes on a 63.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 27.3% and Reform UK on 25.9%, a margin of 1.4 points.
Who lives in Aylesbury? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Aylesbury vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Aylesbury
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Aylesbury within Buckinghamshire
Aylesbury sits entirely within Buckinghamshire Council. Buckinghamshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Buckinghamshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Clinton and Bierton | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 27.6% | 2021 Conservative 51.6%vs Independent 18.6% | - | 41.6% |
| Aylesbury East | Conservative 32.2%vs Labour 27.1% | 2021 Conservative 42.9%vs Lib Dem 34.3% | - | 47.3% |
| Aylesbury North | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 22.2% | 2021 Lib Dem 44.2%vs Conservative 25.6% | - | 39.3% |
| Aylesbury North West | Labour 32.3%vs Lib Dem 23.3% | 2021 Lib Dem 40.7%vs Conservative 25.6% | - | 29.2% |
| Aylesbury South East | Conservative 31.8%vs Labour 28.8% | 2021 Conservative 50.0%vs Lib Dem 29.4% | - | 43.4% |
| Aylesbury South West | Labour 32.7%vs Lib Dem 22.2% | 2021 Lib Dem 46.1%vs Conservative 24.7% | - | 32.8% |
| Aylesbury West | Labour 28.9%vs Lib Dem 26.0% | 2021 Lib Dem 53.5%vs Conservative 27.7% | - | 39.5% |
| Ivinghoe | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2021 Conservative 54.1%vs Labour 22.8% | - | 46.7% |
| Wing | Conservative 32.9%vs Labour 25.0% | 2021 Conservative 44.2%vs Lib Dem 37.7% | - | 48.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Aylesbury at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Aylesbury at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | David Lidington | 12.6% | 52.2% | 28.4% | 12,618 | 68.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Lidington | 15.1% | 50.7% | 10.6% | 17,158 | 69.0%+0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | David Lidington | 30.0% | 55.0% | 9.6% | 14,656 | 71.2%+2.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Rob Butler 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 22.9% | 51.7% | 21.9% | 16,640 | 76.5%+5.3 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Laura Kyrke-Smith | 30.2% | 28.9% | 20.9% | 630 | 63.1%-13.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Aylesbury
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aylesbury. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed64.2 / 61.9vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 64.8vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.2 / 61.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 65.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.2 / 60.7vs 57.3
- ↑Employed64.2 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 65.3vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.