Aylesbury
South East · County constituency · Buckinghamshire
About the Aylesbury constituency
Aylesbury is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Laura Kyrke-Smith (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 30.2% to 28.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 630 votes on a 63.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 28.9% and Labour on 27.3%, a margin of 1.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Aylesbury? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Aylesbury vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Aylesbury
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Aylesbury within Buckinghamshire
Aylesbury sits entirely within Buckinghamshire Council. Buckinghamshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Buckinghamshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Clinton and Bierton | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 27.6% | 2025 Conservative 36.6%vs Reform 30.2%2025 ward: Aston Clinton & Weston Turville, covering 67% of this ward | - | 35.2% |
| Aylesbury East | Conservative 32.2%vs Labour 27.1% | 2025 Conservative 34.5%vs Lib Dem 29.7% | - | 35.5% |
| Aylesbury North | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 22.2% | 2025 Lib Dem 44.6%vs Reform 19.1% | - | 29.3% |
| Aylesbury North West | Labour 32.3%vs Lib Dem 23.3% | 2025 Lib Dem 53.6%vs Conservative 18.1%2025 ward: Aylesbury North West, covering 88% of this ward | - | 26.0% |
| Aylesbury South East | Conservative 31.8%vs Labour 28.8% | 2025 Lib Dem 31.1%vs Reform 25.2% | - | 34.6% |
| Aylesbury South West | Labour 32.7%vs Lib Dem 22.2% | 2025 Lib Dem 42.4%vs Reform 22.1% | - | 30.8% |
| Aylesbury West | Labour 28.9%vs Lib Dem 26.0% | 2025 Lib Dem 28.1%vs Independent 23.5%2025 ward: Aylesbury West, covering 100% of this ward | - | 33.0% |
| Ivinghoe | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2025 Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 22.9% | - | 36.3% |
| Wing | Conservative 32.9%vs Labour 25.0% | 2025 Reform 28.8%vs Lib Dem 25.8%2025 ward: Berryfields, Buckingham Park & Watermead, covering 44% of this ward | - | 28.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Aylesbury at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Aylesbury at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | David Lidington | 12.6% | 52.2% | 28.4% | 12,618 | 68.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Lidington | 15.1% | 50.7% | 10.6% | 17,158 | 69.0%+0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | David Lidington | 30.0% | 55.0% | 9.6% | 14,656 | 71.2%+2.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Rob Butler 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 22.9% | 51.7% | 21.9% | 16,640 | 76.5%+5.3 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Laura Kyrke-Smith | 30.2% | 28.9% | 20.9% | 630 | 63.1%-13.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Aylesbury
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aylesbury. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed64.2 / 61.9vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 64.8vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.2 / 61.8vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 65.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.2 / 60.7vs 57.3
- ↑Employed64.2 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied66.3 / 65.3vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.