Chelmsford
East of England · Borough constituency · Chelmsford borough
About the Chelmsford constituency
Chelmsford is a borough constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Marie Goldman (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 39.9% to 30.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,753 votes on a 65.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 40.9% and Reform UK on 25.2%, a margin of 15.6 points.
Who lives in Chelmsford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Chelmsford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Chelmsford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Chelmsford within Chelmsford
Chelmsford sits entirely within Chelmsford Council. Chelmsford was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Chelmsford | 100% |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmer | Ref | Ref 34% LD 29% Con 25% | 41.7% |
| Chelmsford Central | LD | LD 48% Ref 25% Con 13% | 41.8% |
| Chelmsford North | LD | LD 46% Ref 30% Con 12% | 41.3% |
| Chelmsford West | LD | LD 46% Ref 28% Con 13% | 42.4% |
| Great Baddow & Galleywood | Ref | Ref 35% LD 34% Con 14% | 46.1% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Moulsham and Central | LD HOLD | LD 49% Ref 20% Con 17% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmer Village and Beaulieu Park | Lib Dem 38.8%vs Conservative 32.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.8%vs Conservative 43.6% | - | 34.8% |
| Goat Hall | Lib Dem 40.6%vs Conservative 32.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.2%vs Conservative 33.5% | - | 36.1% |
| Great Baddow East | Lib Dem 38.7%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.7%vs Conservative 24.9% | - | 44.5% |
| Great Baddow West | Conservative 35.6%vs Lib Dem 35.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.6%vs Conservative 22.0% | - | 37.1% |
| Marconi | Lib Dem 40.5%vs Conservative 23.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.3%vs Labour 17.7% | - | 30.7% |
| Moulsham Lodge | Lib Dem 41.5%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.3%vs Conservative 42.0% | - | 41.5% |
| Moulsham and Central | Lib Dem 37.1%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.1%vs Conservative 30.3% | - | 38.1% |
| Patching Hall | Lib Dem 40.5%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.5%vs Conservative 34.1% | - | 37.8% |
| Springfield North | Lib Dem 40.2%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.9%vs Conservative 38.7% | - | 33.6% |
| St Andrews | Lib Dem 42.1%vs Conservative 25.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 69.6%vs Conservative 19.4% | - | 30.8% |
| The Lawns | Lib Dem 42.7%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.9%vs Conservative 35.2% | - | 44.6% |
| Trinity | Lib Dem 43.1%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.4%vs Conservative 36.8% | - | 37.3% |
| Waterhouse Farm | Lib Dem 40.8%vs Conservative 24.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.4%vs Labour 32.5% | - | 33.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Chelmsford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Chelmsford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Simon Burns | 11.0% | 46.2% | 36.8% | 5,110 | 70.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Simon Burns | 17.6% | 51.5% | 11.9% | 18,250 | 68.5%-1.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Vicky Ford | 29.8% | 53.7% | 12.2% | 13,572 | 70.2%+1.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Vicky Ford 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 18.1% | 54.7% | 26.1% | 15,416 | 70.4%+0.2 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Marie Goldman | 12.0% | 30.5% | 39.9% | 4,753 | 65.9%-4.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Chelmsford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Chelmsford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed63.0 / 61.8vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.0 / 61.9vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.0 / 66.5vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.0 / 62.8vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.