Banbury
South East · County constituency
About the Banbury constituency
Banbury is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Sean Woodcock (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.3% to 31.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,256 votes on a 65.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.9% and Reform UK on 25.9%, a margin of 9.0 points.
Who lives in Banbury? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Banbury vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Banbury
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Banbury within Cherwell and West Oxfordshire
Banbury crosses council boundaries: Cherwell (81%), West Oxfordshire (19%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Cherwell | 81% | View projection › |
| West Oxfordshire | 19% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adderbury, Bloxham and Bodicote | Conservative 36.2%vs Labour 29.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 32.7%vs Conservative 27.5% | Conservative→Lib Dem +14.1pp | 48.0% |
| Banbury Calthorpe and Easington | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 33.1% | May 2026 Reform 29.3%vs Conservative 29.3% | Labour→Reform +20.8pp | 45.1% |
| Banbury Cross and Neithrop | Labour 47.0%vs Conservative 24.7% | May 2026 Reform 26.6%vs Labour 24.1% | Labour→Reform +18.1pp | 35.4% |
| Banbury Grimsbury and Hightown | Labour 48.9%vs Conservative 23.5% | May 2026 Labour 31.4%vs Conservative 20.9% | Labour share -17.5pp | 34.6% |
| Banbury Hardwick | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 28.8% | May 2026 Reform 34.8%vs Labour 25.7% | Labour→Reform +19.1pp | 35.0% |
| Banbury Ruscote | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 23.2% | May 2026 Reform 35.4%vs Labour 25.5% | Labour→Reform +21.2pp | 28.6% |
| Chadlington and Churchill | Conservative 36.8%vs Labour 27.2% | 2024 Lib Dem 56.3%vs Conservative 34.6% | - | - |
| Charlbury and Finstock | Conservative 32.9%vs Labour 28.4% | 2024 Lib Dem 58.9%vs Conservative 20.3% | - | - |
| Chipping Norton | Labour 43.5%vs Conservative 28.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 30.1%vs Reform 25.1% | Labour→Lib Dem +26.2pp | - |
| Cropredy, Sibfords and Wroxton | Conservative 39.3%vs Labour 29.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 30.8%vs Conservative 30.0% | Conservative→Lib Dem +14.6pp | 52.5% |
| Deddington | Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 33.6% | May 2026 Conservative 32.5%vs Lib Dem 29.4% | Conservative share -5.5pp | 52.5% |
| Kingham, Rollright and Enstone | Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 31.6% | 2024 Conservative 43.0%vs Green 40.5% | - | - |
| The Bartons | Conservative 36.5%vs Labour 27.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 52.4%vs Conservative 30.1% | Conservative→Lib Dem +21.0pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Banbury at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Banbury at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Tony Baldry | 19.2% | 52.8% | 20.4% | 18,227 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Victoria Prentis | 21.3% | 53.0% | 5.9% | 18,395 | 67.1%+0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Victoria Prentis | 34.1% | 54.2% | 5.6% | 12,399 | 73.4%+6.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Victoria Prentis 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 24.8% | 52.0% | 20.3% | 13,799 | 72.6%-0.8 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Sean Woodcock | 38.3% | 31.6% | 9.0% | 3,256 | 65.8%-6.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Banbury
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Banbury. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed62.8 / 63.7vs 57.3
- ↑Employed62.8 / 61.5vs 57.3
- ↑Employed62.8 / 62.9vs 57.3
- ↑Employed62.8 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↑Employed62.8 / 63.0vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.