East Wiltshire
South West · County constituency
About the East Wiltshire constituency
East Wiltshire is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Danny Kruger (Reform UK), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.7% to 25.7% for Labour, a majority of 4,716 votes on a 63.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.7% and Reform UK on 31.4%, a margin of 2.3 points.
Who lives in East Wiltshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did East Wiltshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of East Wiltshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
East Wiltshire within Wiltshire and Swindon
East Wiltshire crosses council boundaries: Wiltshire (86%), Swindon (14%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Wiltshire | 86% | — |
| Swindon | 14% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldbourne & Ramsbury | Conservative 40.7%vs Labour 21.1% | 2021 Conservative 64.4%vs Green 15.1% | - | 41.2% |
| Amesbury East & Bulford | Conservative 35.9%vs Labour 26.2% | 2021 Conservative 67.9%vs Labour 17.1% | - | 24.3% |
| Amesbury South | Conservative 35.7%vs Labour 28.8% | 2021 Conservative 65.0%vs Labour 21.8% | - | 29.6% |
| Amesbury West | Conservative 35.6%vs Labour 25.8% | 2021 Conservative 65.2%vs Labour 15.5% | - | 30.4% |
| Avon Valley | Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 31.0% | 2021 Conservative 67.7%vs Independent 14.5% | - | 28.9% |
| Chiseldon and Lawn | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 35.4% | 2023 Labour 51.2%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 43.1% |
| Durrington | Labour 30.8%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2021 Independent 88.1%vs Conservative 11.9% | - | 41.3% |
| Ludgershall North & Rural | Conservative 34.2%vs Labour 29.2% | 2021 Conservative 69.3%vs Green 15.5% | - | 33.8% |
| Marlborough East | Conservative 34.9%vs Lib Dem 22.2% | 2021 Conservative 53.8%vs Lib Dem 24.5% | - | 37.3% |
| Marlborough West | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 20.2% | 2021 Conservative 63.2%vs Lib Dem 17.6% | - | 42.7% |
| Pewsey | Conservative 45.0%vs Labour 26.2% | 2021 Conservative 59.2%vs Labour 16.1% | - | 47.2% |
| Pewsey Vale East | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 28.1% | 2021 Conservative 66.4%vs Green 17.6% | - | 40.0% |
| Pewsey Vale West | Conservative 40.0%vs Labour 28.0% | 2021 Conservative 68.2%vs Green 18.8% | - | 41.0% |
| Ridgeway | Conservative 38.5%vs Labour 21.1% | May 2026 Conservative 47.1%vs Lib Dem 22.2%now part of Chiseldon Ridgeway | Conservative share +8.5pp | 53.3% |
| Tidworth East & Ludgershall South | Conservative 30.9%vs Labour 25.5% | 2021 Conservative 69.7%vs Labour 18.6% | - | 14.0% |
| Tidworth North & West | Conservative 29.4%vs Labour 24.3% | 2021 Conservative 78.1%vs Labour 21.9% | - | 32.7% |
| Till Valley | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 26.2% | 2021 Conservative 57.8%vs Lib Dem 30.2% | - | 44.1% |
| Wroughton and Wichelstowe | Conservative 34.5%vs Lib Dem 25.9% | May 2026 Conservative 31.8%vs Lib Dem 29.7% | Conservative share -2.7pp | 49.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for East Wiltshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won East Wiltshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Claire Perry Devizes MP | 10.2% | 55.1% | 27.0% | 13,005 | 68.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Claire Perry Devizes MP | 13.0% | 57.7% | 8.1% | 20,751 | 70.8%+2.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Claire Perry Devizes MP | 21.0% | 62.7% | 9.3% | 21,136 | 70.1%-0.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Danny Kruger Devizes MP, pre-review boundary | 15.9% | 65.9% | 14.5% | 24,523 | 68.9% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Danny Kruger | 25.7% | 35.7% | 17.4% | 4,716 | 63.7%-5.2 |
East Wiltshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Devizes (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like East Wiltshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Wiltshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed63.0 / 62.8vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.0 / 60.3vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.0 / 63.7vs 57.3
- ↓No quals13.9 / 14.8vs 18.0
- ↓No quals13.9 / 15.8vs 18.0
- ↑Employed63.0 / 61.9vs 57.3
- ↓No quals13.9 / 14.2vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.