Newbury
South East · County constituency · West Berkshire borough
About the Newbury constituency
Newbury is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Mr Lee Dillon (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 40.1% to 35.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,377 votes on a 68.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 31.1% and the Conservatives on 25.9%, a margin of 5.2 points.
Who lives in Newbury? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Newbury vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Newbury
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Newbury within West Berkshire
Newbury sits entirely within West Berkshire Council. West Berkshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| West Berkshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2025 | Thatcham North East | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chieveley & Cold Ash | Conservative 40.9%vs Lib Dem 35.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.1%vs Conservative 42.9% | - | 42.2% |
| Downlands | Conservative 45.5%vs Lib Dem 29.2% | 2023 Conservative 55.6%vs Lib Dem 24.9% | - | 38.6% |
| Hungerford & Kintbury | Lib Dem 39.0%vs Conservative 38.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 50.5%vs Conservative 41.5% | - | 50.2% |
| Lambourn | Conservative 41.4%vs Lib Dem 32.3% | 2023 Conservative 59.8%vs Lib Dem 25.4% | - | 33.4% |
| Newbury Central | Lib Dem 41.8%vs Conservative 29.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.6%vs Conservative 29.2% | - | 44.6% |
| Newbury Clay Hill | Lib Dem 40.1%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.3%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | 42.5% |
| Newbury Greenham | Lib Dem 44.0%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.3%vs Conservative 26.1% | - | 43.5% |
| Newbury Speen | Lib Dem 37.2%vs Conservative 36.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.0%vs Conservative 33.3% | - | 49.7% |
| Newbury Wash Common | Lib Dem 41.9%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.9%vs Conservative 22.4% | - | 61.9% |
| Thatcham Central | Lib Dem 43.0%vs Conservative 34.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 58.6%vs Conservative 28.2% | - | 37.8% |
| Thatcham Colthrop & Crookham | Lib Dem 39.5%vs Conservative 34.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 70.1%vs Conservative 29.9% | - | 44.3% |
| Thatcham North East | Lib Dem 41.5%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.2%vs Conservative 27.0% | - | 35.1% |
| Thatcham West | Lib Dem 45.8%vs Conservative 34.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 60.1%vs Conservative 23.9% | - | 31.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Newbury at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Newbury at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Richard Benyon | 4.3% | 56.4% | 35.5% | 12,248 | 74.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Richard Benyon | 8.4% | 61.0% | 15.0% | 26,368 | 72.1%-1.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Richard Benyon | 14.1% | 61.5% | 21.4% | 24,380 | 73.4%+1.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Laura Farris 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 7.7% | 55.1% | 32.6% | 11,460 | 71.2%-2.2 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Lee Dillon | 7.5% | 35.3% | 40.1% | 2,377 | 68.0%-3.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Newbury
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Newbury. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed63.7 / 64.4vs 57.3
- ↓Leave47.8 / 46.3vs 53.2
- ↑Employed63.7 / 62.8vs 57.3
- ↓Leave47.8 / 50.4vs 53.2
- ↑Employed63.7 / 62.9vs 57.3
- ↓Leave47.8 / 51.0vs 53.2
- ↑Employed63.7 / 61.9vs 57.3
- ↑Employed63.7 / 64.2vs 57.3
- ↓Leave47.8 / 49.2vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.