Hertford and Stortford
East of England · County constituency · East Hertfordshire borough
About the Hertford and Stortford constituency
Hertford and Stortford is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Josh Dean (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.5% to 29.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,748 votes on a 68.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 28.5% and Labour on 26.6%, a margin of 1.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Hertford and Stortford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hertford and Stortford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hertford and Stortford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hertford and Stortford within East Hertfordshire
Hertford and Stortford sits entirely within East Hertfordshire Council. East Hertfordshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| East Hertfordshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop's Stortford All Saints | Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.2%vs Conservative 17.9% | - | 21.0% |
| Bishop's Stortford Central | Labour 43.2%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2023 Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 28.5% | - | 27.2% |
| Bishop's Stortford North | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 28.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.1%vs Conservative 26.3% | - | 34.0% |
| Bishop's Stortford Parsonage | Labour 38.9%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.9%vs Conservative 22.5% | - | 40.0% |
| Bishop's Stortford South | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 32.8% | - | 23.5% |
| Bishop's Stortford Thorley Manor | Labour 46.0%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2023 Conservative 44.1%vs Labour 32.5% | - | 34.0% |
| Hertford Bengeo | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 32.5% | 2023 Green 62.2%vs Conservative 24.2% | - | 52.6% |
| Hertford Castle | Labour 41.4%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2023 Green 34.6%vs Conservative 32.9% | - | 24.7% |
| Hertford Kingsmead | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2023 Green 37.8%vs Conservative 25.0% | - | 53.0% |
| Hertford Sele | Labour 47.9%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2023 Labour 55.8%vs Conservative 26.7% | - | 35.4% |
| Hunsdon | Labour 35.2%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Green 65.9%vs Conservative 16.3% | - | 21.0% |
| Much Hadham | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 34.8% | 2023 Conservative 59.8%vs Labour 18.0% | - | 30.3% |
| Sawbridgeworth | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 32.9% | 2023 Conservative 50.4%vs Labour 22.7% | - | 42.6% |
| Ware Priory | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2023 Green 48.2%vs Conservative 28.3% | - | 34.0% |
| Ware Rural | Conservative 36.9%vs Labour 30.6% | 2023 Conservative 46.5%vs Green 26.5% | - | 31.0% |
| Ware St Mary's | Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 34.0% | 2023 Green 55.7%vs Conservative 33.1% | - | 47.4% |
| Ware Trinity | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2023 Green 62.1%vs Conservative 23.5% | - | 35.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hertford and Stortford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hertford and Stortford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Mark Prisk | 13.8% | 53.8% | 26.0% | 15,437 | 70.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Mark Prisk | 17.9% | 56.1% | 7.8% | 21,509 | 69.8%-0.8 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mark Prisk | 28.6% | 60.3% | 8.1% | 19,035 | 72.9%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Julie Marson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 23.7% | 55.7% | 14.2% | 17,806 | 73.8%+0.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Joshua Robert Abraham Dean | 38.5% | 29.7% | 7.7% | 4,748 | 68.4%-5.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Hertford and Stortford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hertford and Stortford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed64.2 / 65.2vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 40.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.8 / 68.6vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.2 / 64.4vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.8 / 68.3vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.2 / 65.3vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.8 / 67.9vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 38.9vs 33.7
- ↑Employed64.2 / 66.1vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 41.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.8 / 68.1vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied67.8 / 70.8vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.2 / 62.6vs 57.3
- ↓No quals13.4 / 11.9vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.