Bicester and Woodstock
South East · County constituency
About the Bicester and Woodstock constituency
Bicester and Woodstock is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Calum Miller (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 38.7% to 28.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,958 votes on a 67.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 33.0% and Reform UK on 23.0%, a margin of 10.0 points.
Who lives in Bicester and Woodstock? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bicester and Woodstock vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bicester and Woodstock
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bicester and Woodstock within Cherwell and West Oxfordshire
Bicester and Woodstock crosses council boundaries: Cherwell (78%), West Oxfordshire (22%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Cherwell | 78% | View projection › |
| West Oxfordshire | 22% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | Kidlington West | LD HOLD | LD 59% Ref 19% Con 13% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bicester East | Lib Dem 33.1%vs Conservative 28.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 35.2%vs Reform 27.6% | Lib Dem share +2.1pp | 40.9% |
| Bicester North and Caversfield | Lib Dem 32.1%vs Conservative 29.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 36.0%vs Conservative 25.1% | Lib Dem share +3.9pp | 41.3% |
| Bicester South and Ambrosden | Lib Dem 41.7%vs Conservative 25.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.2%vs Reform 21.6% | Lib Dem share -0.5pp | 36.8% |
| Bicester West | Lib Dem 30.3%vs Conservative 28.4% | May 2026 Reform 30.8%vs Lib Dem 23.1% | Lib Dem→Reform +11.7pp | 41.6% |
| Eynsham and Cassington | Lib Dem 48.2%vs Conservative 25.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.5%vs Reform 18.7% | Lib Dem share -1.8pp | - |
| Freeland and Hanborough | Lib Dem 37.7%vs Conservative 31.9% | May 2026 Conservative 39.7%vs Lib Dem 38.6% | Lib Dem→Conservative +3.5pp | - |
| Fringford and Heyfords | Lib Dem 36.1%vs Conservative 33.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.5%vs Reform 25.2% | Lib Dem share +3.4pp | 44.7% |
| Kidlington East | Lib Dem 33.6%vs Conservative 29.6% | May 2026 Green 35.2%vs Reform 24.9% | Lib Dem→Green +22.2pp | 42.2% |
| Kidlington West | Lib Dem 45.4%vs Conservative 25.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.1%vs Reform 23.2% | Lib Dem share -0.3pp | 44.7% |
| Launton and Otmoor | Lib Dem 39.6%vs Conservative 29.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.6%vs Reform 27.1% | Lib Dem share -1.0pp | 48.8% |
| North Leigh | Conservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 35.3% | 2024 Conservative 54.1%vs Lib Dem 33.7% | - | - |
| Stonesfield and Tackley | Lib Dem 44.9%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2024 Green 33.6%vs Lib Dem 32.0% | - | - |
| Woodstock and Bladon | Lib Dem 47.0%vs Conservative 26.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.9%vs Conservative 25.1% | Lib Dem share -5.1pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bicester and Woodstock at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bicester and Woodstock at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Tony Baldry Banbury MP | 19.2% | 52.8% | 20.4% | 18,227 | 66.7% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Victoria Prentis Banbury MP | 21.3% | 53.0% | 5.9% | 18,395 | 67.1%+0.4 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Victoria Prentis Banbury MP | 34.1% | 54.2% | 5.6% | 12,399 | 73.4%+6.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Victoria Prentis Banbury MP, pre-review boundary | 16.9% | 53.9% | 26.6% | 14,205 | 73.9% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Calum Miller | 16.4% | 28.8% | 38.7% | 4,958 | 67.5%-6.4 |
Bicester and Woodstock was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Banbury (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Bicester and Woodstock
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bicester and Woodstock. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed65.3 / 64.2vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.9 / 67.8vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate38.9 / 40.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave44.5 / 45.8vs 53.2
- ↑Employed65.3 / 64.4vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.9 / 68.3vs 61.9
- ↓Leave44.5 / 44.8vs 53.2
- ↑Employed65.3 / 66.1vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.9 / 68.1vs 61.9
- ↑Employed65.3 / 65.2vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied67.9 / 68.6vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate38.9 / 40.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave44.5 / 44.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate38.9 / 41.5vs 33.7
- ↑Employed65.3 / 61.2vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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