Hitchin
East of England · County constituency
About the Hitchin constituency
Hitchin is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Alistair Strathern (Labour), first elected in October 2023. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.9% to 28.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,109 votes on a 69.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 30.7% and Reform UK on 25.7%, a margin of 4.9 points.
Who lives in Hitchin? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hitchin vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hitchin
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hitchin within North Hertfordshire and Central Bedfordshire
Hitchin crosses council boundaries: North Hertfordshire (60%), Central Bedfordshire (40%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| North Hertfordshire | 60% |
| Central Bedfordshire | 40% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2025 | Stotfold | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 31% Con 21% Lab 20% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlesey & Fairfield | Labour 43.3%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2023 Independent 33.2%vs Labour 28.9% | - | 39.8% |
| Cadwell | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2024 Lib Dem 41.8%vs Conservative 39.7% | - | - |
| Clifton, Henlow & Langford | Labour 43.4%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2023 Conservative 52.1%vs Labour 33.3% | - | 35.3% |
| Codicote & Kimpton | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 32.3% | 2024 Conservative 49.2%vs Labour 26.8% | - | - |
| Hitchin Bearton | Labour 58.5%vs Conservative 18.3% | 2024 Labour 54.1%vs Green 17.5% | - | - |
| Hitchin Highbury | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2024 Lib Dem 48.2%vs Labour 24.2% | - | - |
| Hitchin Oughton | Labour 53.0%vs Conservative 21.8% | 2024 Labour 61.7%vs Conservative 18.2% | - | - |
| Hitchin Priory | Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 34.0% | 2024 Lib Dem 44.7%vs Labour 25.4% | - | - |
| Hitchin Walsworth | Labour 54.6%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2024 Labour 51.0%vs Conservative 20.1% | - | - |
| Hitchwood | Conservative 38.3%vs Labour 33.7% | 2024 Conservative 54.5%vs Labour 23.6% | - | - |
| Meppershall & Shillington | Conservative 46.1%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 55.8%vs Labour 17.1% | - | 37.2% |
| Offa | Conservative 38.3%vs Labour 33.7% | 2024 Conservative 45.5%vs Lib Dem 28.7% | - | - |
| Shefford | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 35.2% | 2023 Conservative 50.1%vs Labour 41.2% | - | 30.1% |
| Stotfold | Labour 42.3%vs Conservative 28.3% | 2023 Independent 32.2%vs Labour 31.4% | - | 43.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hitchin at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hitchin at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Peter Lilley Hitchin and Harpenden MP | 13.6% | 54.6% | 26.7% | 15,271 | 74.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Peter Lilley Hitchin and Harpenden MP | 20.6% | 56.9% | 8.1% | 20,055 | 68.9%-5.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Bim Afolami Hitchin and Harpenden MP | 32.6% | 53.1% | 10.6% | 12,031 | 77.4%+8.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Bim Afolami Hitchin and Harpenden MP, pre-review boundary | 26.2% | 47.0% | 23.7% | 11,264 | 75.0% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Alistair Strathern | 43.9% | 28.5% | 9.4% | 8,109 | 69.2%-5.8 |
Hitchin was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Hitchin and Harpenden (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Hitchin
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hitchin. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed65.2 / 64.4vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate40.5 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.6 / 68.3vs 61.9
- ↑Employed65.2 / 64.2vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate40.5 / 40.1vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.6 / 67.8vs 61.9
- ↑Employed65.2 / 66.1vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate40.5 / 41.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.6 / 68.1vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied68.6 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↓Leave48.7 / 47.3vs 53.2
- ↑Employed65.2 / 62.2vs 57.3
- ↑Employed65.2 / 65.3vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.6 / 67.9vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate40.5 / 38.9vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.