Constituency profile

Reading West and Mid Berkshire

South East · County constituency

Olivia Bailey MP
Sitting MP

Olivia Bailey

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
47.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -4.6pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +7.8pp
vs Conservative 23.7%
SouthernBrexit-marginal

About the Reading West and Mid Berkshire constituency

Reading West and Mid Berkshire is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Olivia Bailey (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.0% to 32.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,361 votes on a 67.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.5% and the Conservatives on 23.7%, a margin of 7.8 points.

Who lives in Reading West and Mid Berkshire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
47.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
36.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
14.9%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
70.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
28.7%
UK average ~36%
Median age
42.6
UK median ~40
Age 65+
23.0%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
26.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Reading West and Mid Berkshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 1,361 votes (3.0pp) · turnout 67.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Reading West and Mid Berkshire

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Reading West and Mid Berkshire within West Berkshire and Reading

Reading West and Mid Berkshire crosses council boundaries: West Berkshire (68%), Reading (32%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
West Berkshire
40 LSOAs
68%
Reading
19 LSOAs
32%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AldermastonConservative 39.1%vs Labour 26.3%2023 Conservative 51.0%vs Lib Dem 30.2%-36.5%
BasildonConservative 39.8%vs Labour 26.3%2023 Lib Dem 58.6%vs Conservative 41.4%-45.2%
BradfieldConservative 39.7%vs Labour 24.3%2023 Conservative 57.2%vs Lib Dem 34.0%-36.6%
BuckleburyConservative 41.1%vs Labour 26.4%2023 Lib Dem 54.7%vs Conservative 34.4%-52.7%
Burghfield & MortimerConservative 35.0%vs Labour 29.1%2023 Lib Dem 49.1%vs Conservative 37.2%-44.0%
DownlandsConservative 45.5%vs Lib Dem 29.2%2023 Conservative 55.6%vs Lib Dem 24.9%-38.6%
KentwoodLabour 45.9%vs Conservative 28.8%May 2026 Labour 32.4%vs Conservative 24.8%
Labour share
-13.5pp
46.6%
NorcotLabour 52.3%vs Conservative 21.5%May 2026 Labour 35.4%vs Reform 23.5%
Labour share
-16.9pp
36.1%
PangbourneConservative 38.4%vs Labour 25.2%2023 Lib Dem 53.1%vs Conservative 34.8%-45.4%
RidgewayLabour 35.4%vs Conservative 27.6%2023 Green 68.8%vs Conservative 24.9%-45.4%
ThealeLabour 29.7%vs Conservative 26.2%2023 Lib Dem 70.7%vs Conservative 17.9%-36.5%
TilehurstLabour 33.7%vs Conservative 27.5%May 2026 Lib Dem 38.4%vs Reform 25.6%
Labour→Lib Dem
+20.6pp
41.3%
Tilehurst & PurleyConservative 35.3%vs Labour 32.2%2023 Conservative 45.8%vs Lib Dem 39.1%-36.2%
Tilehurst Birch CopseLabour 34.4%vs Conservative 33.1%2023 Conservative 49.9%vs Lib Dem 25.8%-33.0%
Tilehurst South & HolybrookConservative 33.4%vs Labour 32.8%2023 Conservative 48.5%vs Labour 36.9%-30.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Reading West and Mid Berkshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Reading West and Mid Berkshire at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdRichard Benyon Newbury MP4.3%56.4%35.5%2.5% UKIP0.8%0.4%12,24874.0%
2015predecessorCon holdRichard Benyon Newbury MP8.4%61.0%15.0%10.8% UKIP4.1%0.6%26,36872.1%-1.9
2017predecessorCon holdRichard Benyon Newbury MP14.1%61.5%21.4%-2.5%0.5%24,38073.4%+1.3
2019notionalConservative winnerLaura Farris Newbury MP, pre-review boundary22.9%56.8%16.9%-3.4%-16,75870.6%
2024Lab gain from ConOlivia Bailey35.0%32.0%11.0%13.4% Ref6.8%1.8%1,36167.7%-2.9

Reading West and Mid Berkshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Newbury (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Reading West and Mid Berkshire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Reading West and Mid Berkshire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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