Surrey Heath
South East · County constituency
About the Surrey Heath constituency
Surrey Heath is a county constituency in the South East, spanning parts of Surrey Heath, Guildford and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Dr Al Pinkerton (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won Surrey Heath with 44.8% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 33.0%, a majority of 5,640 votes. Turnout was 66.4%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Liberal Democrats on 44.8% and the Conservatives on 26.4% in Surrey Heath, a margin of 18.4 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Surrey Heath is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 51.9% voted Leave in 2016). About 38.8% of residents hold a degree, 73.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 43 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Conservatives 4 times, the Liberal Democrats 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Surrey Heath? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Surrey Heath vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Surrey Heath
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Surrey Heath within Surrey Heath and Guildford
Surrey Heath crosses multiple council boundaries: Surrey Heath (93%), Guildford (7%). English councils rotate their election cycles and none of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent ward result available for each ward.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Surrey Heath | 93% |
| Guildford | 7% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2024 | Old Dean | LD GAIN from Con | LD 45% Con 32% Ref 12% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Surrey Heath at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Surrey Heath at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Michael Gove | 10.2% | 57.6% | 25.8% | 17,289 | 69.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Michael Gove | 11.2% | 59.9% | 9.1% | 24,804 | 68.5%-1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Michael Gove | 21.1% | 64.2% | 10.8% | 24,943 | 71.6%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Michael Gove 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 9.4% | 57.9% | 28.0% | 15,552 | 73.6%+2.0 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Al Pinkerton | 6.6% | 33.0% | 44.8% | 5,640 | 66.4%-7.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Surrey Heath
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Surrey Heath. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.7 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 11.1vs 16.8
- ↓No quals13.0 / 12.7vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied73.7 / 68.0vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate38.8 / 41.0vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 11.8vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.7 / 74.1vs 61.9
- ↓No quals13.0 / 13.0vs 18.0
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.7 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.7 / 62.2vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.8 / 15.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.7 / 73.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 12.0vs 16.8
- ↓No quals13.0 / 13.8vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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