Surrey Heath
South East · County constituency
About the Surrey Heath constituency
Surrey Heath is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Dr Al Pinkerton (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 44.8% to 33.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,640 votes on a 66.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 42.7% and the Conservatives on 26.2%, a margin of 16.4 points.
Who lives in Surrey Heath? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Surrey Heath vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Surrey Heath
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Surrey Heath within Surrey Heath and Guildford
Surrey Heath crosses council boundaries: Surrey Heath (93%), Guildford (7%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Surrey Heath | 93% |
| Guildford | 7% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2024 | Old Dean | LD GAIN from Con | LD 45% Con 32% Ref 12% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bagshot | Lib Dem 45.5%vs Conservative 37.0% | 2023 Conservative 51.9%vs Lib Dem 37.3% | - | 39.4% |
| Bisley & West End | Lib Dem 44.8%vs Conservative 33.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.9%vs Conservative 33.8% | - | 32.5% |
| Frimley | Lib Dem 43.7%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.4%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 34.7% |
| Frimley Green | Lib Dem 49.9%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.9%vs Conservative 37.1% | - | 36.1% |
| Heatherside | Lib Dem 50.6%vs Conservative 29.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 65.6%vs Conservative 34.4% | - | 42.6% |
| Lightwater | Lib Dem 46.9%vs Conservative 36.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.5%vs Conservative 42.6% | - | 46.4% |
| Mytchett & Deepcut | Lib Dem 45.8%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.4%vs Conservative 42.6% | - | 30.9% |
| Normandy & Pirbright | Conservative 43.0%vs Lib Dem 38.0% | 2023 Conservative 58.9%vs Others 17.8% | - | 42.9% |
| Old Dean | Lib Dem 40.3%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Conservative 57.9%vs Labour 42.1% | - | 24.8% |
| Parkside | Lib Dem 44.3%vs Conservative 34.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.3%vs Conservative 43.7% | - | 37.9% |
| St Michaels | Lib Dem 41.6%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2023 Labour 59.4%vs Conservative 40.6% | - | 27.6% |
| St Pauls | Lib Dem 43.5%vs Conservative 34.0% | 2023 Conservative 48.5%vs Lib Dem 45.8% | - | 38.0% |
| Town | Lib Dem 45.1%vs Conservative 28.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.6%vs Conservative 38.4% | - | 28.7% |
| Watchetts | Lib Dem 44.5%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.3%vs Conservative 38.7% | - | 34.0% |
| Windlesham & Chobham | Lib Dem 41.8%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2023 Independent 46.3%vs Lib Dem 27.8% | - | 37.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Surrey Heath at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Surrey Heath at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Michael Gove | 10.2% | 57.6% | 25.8% | 17,289 | 69.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Michael Gove | 11.2% | 59.9% | 9.1% | 24,804 | 68.5%-1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Michael Gove | 21.1% | 64.2% | 10.8% | 24,943 | 71.6%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Michael Gove 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 9.4% | 57.9% | 28.0% | 15,552 | 73.6%+2.0 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Al Pinkerton | 6.6% | 33.0% | 44.8% | 5,640 | 66.4%-7.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Surrey Heath
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Surrey Heath. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.7 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 11.1vs 16.8
- ↓No quals13.0 / 12.7vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied73.7 / 68.0vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate38.8 / 41.0vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 11.8vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.7 / 74.1vs 61.9
- ↓No quals13.0 / 13.0vs 18.0
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.7 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↑Employed61.7 / 62.2vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent15.8 / 15.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.7 / 73.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 12.0vs 16.8
- ↓No quals13.0 / 13.8vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.