Reigate
South East · County constituency · Reigate and Banstead borough
About the Reigate constituency
Reigate is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Rebecca Paul (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.4% to 29.4% for Labour, a majority of 3,187 votes on a 68.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 28.4% and Reform UK on 25.1%, a margin of 3.3 points.
Who lives in Reigate? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Reigate vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Reigate
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Reigate within Reigate and Banstead
Reigate sits entirely within Reigate and Banstead Council. Reigate and Banstead was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Reigate and Banstead | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 | Meadvale & St John's | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banstead Village | Conservative 42.4%vs Labour 27.1% | 2024 Conservative 60.7%vs Labour 18.7% | - | 33.3% |
| Chipstead, Kingswood & Woodmansterne | Conservative 41.6%vs Labour 26.4% | 2024 Conservative 65.0%vs Labour 13.0% | - | 35.0% |
| Earlswood & Whitebushes | Labour 30.7%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2024 Green 60.4%vs Conservative 17.6% | - | 33.6% |
| Lower Kingswood, Tadworth & Walton | Conservative 43.0%vs Labour 25.1% | 2024 Independent 39.9%vs Conservative 36.5% | - | 36.6% |
| Meadvale & St John's | Conservative 31.9%vs Labour 27.5% | 2024 Lib Dem 36.6%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | 39.4% |
| Nork | Conservative 35.4%vs Labour 30.1% | 2024 Others 65.4%vs Conservative 18.6% | - | 34.0% |
| Redhill East | Labour 31.6%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2024 Green 62.8%vs Labour 16.1% | - | 35.2% |
| Redhill West & Wray Common | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2024 Labour 41.1%vs Conservative 31.1% | - | 36.1% |
| Reigate | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 24.3% | 2024 Conservative 36.1%vs Lib Dem 33.3% | - | 40.4% |
| South Park & Woodhatch | Conservative 34.6%vs Labour 30.7% | 2024 Green 50.6%vs Conservative 20.8% | - | 36.4% |
| Tattenham Corner & Preston | Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2024 Others 64.8%vs Conservative 14.0% | - | 31.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Reigate at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Reigate at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Crispin Blunt | 11.3% | 53.4% | 26.2% | 13,591 | 69.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Crispin Blunt | 12.8% | 56.8% | 10.5% | 22,334 | 69.9%+0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Crispin Blunt | 24.7% | 57.4% | 10.9% | 17,614 | 72.1%+2.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Crispin Blunt 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 16.9% | 55.8% | 19.9% | 19,220 | 70.2%-1.9 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Rebecca Paul | 29.4% | 35.4% | 12.7% | 3,187 | 68.9%-1.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Reigate
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Reigate. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.9 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 44.6vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent11.1 / 9.7vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied71.9 / 73.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent11.1 / 9.5vs 16.8
- ↓No quals12.7 / 13.0vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 41.0vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.9 / 68.0vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent11.1 / 11.8vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied71.9 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↓Leave48.0 / 47.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent15.8 / 15.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.9 / 72.1vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 42.5vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent11.1 / 9.5vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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