Constituency profile

Runnymede and Weybridge

South East · County constituency

Dr Ben Spencer MP
Sitting MP

Dr Ben Spencer

Conservative

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
49.9% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -2.0pp below mean
Current outlook
Conservative +7.2pp
vs Reform UK 24.7%
SouthernBrexit-marginalGraduate-heavy

About the Runnymede and Weybridge constituency

Runnymede and Weybridge is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Dr Ben Spencer (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.2% to 22.4% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 7,627 votes on a 65.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 32.0% and Reform UK on 24.7%, a margin of 7.2 points.

Who lives in Runnymede and Weybridge? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
49.9%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
41.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
14.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
68.0%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
30.7%
UK average ~36%
Median age
42.1
UK median ~40
Age 65+
22.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
27.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Runnymede and Weybridge vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 7,627 votes (15.8pp) · turnout 65.6%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Runnymede and Weybridge

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Runnymede and Weybridge within Runnymede and Elmbridge

Runnymede and Weybridge crosses council boundaries: Runnymede (66%), Elmbridge (34%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Runnymede
42 LSOAs
66%
Elmbridge
22 LSOAs
34%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
21 Aug 2025Addlestone South
Runnymede
Ref GAIN from ConRef 34% LD 27% Con 23%
18 Dec 2024Ottershaw
Runnymede
Ind HOLD
18 Oct 2024Addlestone South
Runnymede
Con HOLD
18 Oct 2024Weybridge St George's Hill
Elmbridge
Con HOLD
5 Jul 2024Cobham and Downside
Elmbridge
Con GAIN from LD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Addlestone NorthConservative 37.1%vs Labour 23.2%2024 Green 39.8%vs Conservative 25.8%--
Addlestone SouthConservative 36.9%vs Labour 25.2%2024 Conservative 42.0%vs Labour 41.4%--
Chertsey RiversideConservative 34.3%vs Labour 27.8%2024 Labour 45.9%vs Conservative 37.8%--
Chertsey St Ann'sConservative 35.6%vs Labour 26.5%2024 Labour 47.2%vs Conservative 34.7%--
Cobham and DownsideConservative 45.9%vs Lib Dem 25.1%2024 Conservative 45.8%vs Lib Dem 40.3%--
Egham HytheConservative 31.0%vs Labour 28.4%2024 Labour 53.8%vs Conservative 37.9%--
Egham TownConservative 32.6%vs Labour 24.2%2024 Others 50.6%vs Conservative 20.9%--
Longcross, Lyne & Chertsey SouthConservative 32.0%vs Lib Dem 28.4%2024 Lib Dem 70.0%vs Conservative 30.0%--
New HawConservative 32.3%vs Lib Dem 27.9%2024 Lib Dem 72.7%vs Conservative 20.6%--
OttershawConservative 38.8%vs Labour 21.5%2024 Independent 46.1%vs Conservative 24.4%--
Oxshott and Stoke D'AbernonConservative 47.5%vs Lib Dem 22.8%2024 Conservative 59.3%vs Lib Dem 30.2%--
ThorpeConservative 41.1%vs Labour 19.2%2024 Others 47.4%vs Conservative 35.0%--
Weybridge RiversideConservative 35.9%vs Lib Dem 32.3%2024 Lib Dem 60.4%vs Conservative 29.6%--
Weybridge St George's HillConservative 37.8%vs Lib Dem 22.0%2024 Others 53.0%vs Conservative 29.3%--
Woodham & RowtownConservative 42.4%vs Labour 20.6%2024 Conservative 58.3%vs Lib Dem 14.3%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Runnymede and Weybridge at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Runnymede and Weybridge at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdPhilip Hammond13.4%55.9%21.6%6.5% UKIP1.4%1.1%16,50966.4%
2015Con holdPhilip Hammond15.5%59.7%6.7%13.9% UKIP4.1%-22,13467.8%+1.4
2017Con holdPhilip Hammond25.9%60.9%7.3%3.2% UKIP2.6%-18,05068.9%+1.1
2019notionalConservative winnerBen Spencer 2019 MP, pre-review boundary17.7%53.2%22.7%0.9% Brx2.7%2.8%16,07271.4%+2.5
2024Con holdBen Spencer20.6%38.2%22.4%13.3% Ref4.0%1.4%7,62765.6%-5.8

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Runnymede and Weybridge

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Runnymede and Weybridge. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.