Epsom and Ewell
South East · Borough constituency
About the Epsom and Ewell constituency
Epsom and Ewell is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Helen Maguire (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 37.9% to 31.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,686 votes on a 71.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 31.9% and the Conservatives on 24.7%, a margin of 7.2 points.
Who lives in Epsom and Ewell? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Epsom and Ewell vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Epsom and Ewell
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Epsom and Ewell within Epsom and Ewell and Mole Valley
Epsom and Ewell crosses council boundaries: Epsom and Ewell (73%), Mole Valley (27%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Epsom and Ewell | 73% |
| Mole Valley | 27% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashtead Lanes & Common | Lib Dem 43.8%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2024 Others 58.9%vs Lib Dem 18.4% | - | 41.0% |
| Ashtead Park | Conservative 36.2%vs Lib Dem 34.5% | 2024 Others 53.3%vs Lib Dem 18.2% | - | 38.0% |
| Auriol | Lib Dem 34.1%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Others 72.8%vs Conservative 12.2% | - | 34.6% |
| College | Lib Dem 49.9%vs Conservative 27.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.4%vs Others 22.1% | - | 62.4% |
| Court | Lib Dem 31.9%vs Labour 26.5% | 2023 Labour 58.3%vs Others 22.0% | - | 29.5% |
| Cuddington | Lib Dem 36.4%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2023 Others 66.9%vs Conservative 14.1% | - | 30.6% |
| Ewell Court | Lib Dem 34.6%vs Conservative 32.5% | 2023 Others 70.8%vs Conservative 12.9% | - | 32.6% |
| Ewell Village | Lib Dem 36.6%vs Conservative 27.6% | 2023 Others 58.2%vs Conservative 13.6% | - | 35.4% |
| Horton | Conservative 40.4%vs Lib Dem 27.7% | 2023 Conservative 50.8%vs Labour 24.4% | - | 44.9% |
| Leatherhead North | Lib Dem 47.8%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2024 Lib Dem 51.9%vs Conservative 25.3% | - | 29.0% |
| Leatherhead South | Lib Dem 40.3%vs Conservative 34.7% | 2024 Lib Dem 49.0%vs Conservative 36.1% | - | 44.0% |
| Nonsuch | Lib Dem 36.1%vs Conservative 34.0% | 2023 Others 52.7%vs Conservative 23.3% | - | 40.4% |
| Ruxley | Lib Dem 33.1%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Others 50.9%vs Labour 21.8% | - | 23.6% |
| Stamford | Lib Dem 42.1%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 27.2%vs Others 26.8% | - | 47.6% |
| Stoneleigh | Conservative 42.9%vs Lib Dem 28.8% | 2023 Others 70.6%vs Conservative 13.9% | - | 33.1% |
| Town | Lib Dem 40.0%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2023 Others 41.4%vs Labour 23.8% | - | 34.9% |
| West Ewell | Lib Dem 36.6%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Others 45.2%vs Conservative 21.3% | - | 40.8% |
| Woodcote & Langley Vale | Lib Dem 36.4%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Others 50.1%vs Conservative 21.9% | - | 46.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Epsom and Ewell at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Epsom and Ewell at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Chris Grayling | 11.9% | 56.2% | 26.8% | 16,134 | 68.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Chris Grayling | 15.5% | 58.3% | 8.8% | 24,443 | 72.7%+3.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Chris Grayling | 25.0% | 59.6% | 12.5% | 20,475 | 74.1%+1.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Chris Grayling 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 16.8% | 53.6% | 24.2% | 16,856 | 74.7%+0.6 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Helen Maguire | 15.3% | 31.2% | 37.9% | 3,686 | 71.3%-3.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Epsom and Ewell
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Epsom and Ewell. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.6 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent9.7 / 11.1vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate44.6 / 44.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 69.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.7 / 10.8vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 71.2vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.6 / 42.6vs 33.7
- ↓No quals12.6 / 13.8vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 72.1vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.6 / 42.5vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent9.7 / 9.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 73.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.7 / 9.5vs 16.8
- ↓No quals12.6 / 13.0vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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