Constituency profile

Beaconsfield

South East · County constituency · Buckinghamshire borough

Joy Morrissey MP
Sitting MP

Joy Morrissey

Conservative

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
County constituency, Buckinghamshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
49.0% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -2.9pp below mean
Current outlook
Conservative +7.7pp
vs Reform UK 24.4%
SouthernBrexit-marginalGraduate-heavy

About the Beaconsfield constituency

Beaconsfield is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Joy Morrissey (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.8% to 27.3% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 5,455 votes on a 65.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 32.2% and Reform UK on 24.4%, a margin of 7.7 points.

Who lives in Beaconsfield? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
49.0%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
42.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
13.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
71.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
27.7%
UK average ~36%
Median age
45.0
UK median ~40
Age 65+
26.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
23.8%
UK average ~28%

How did Beaconsfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 5,455 votes (11.5pp) · turnout 65.6%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Beaconsfield

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Beaconsfield within Buckinghamshire

Beaconsfield sits entirely within Buckinghamshire Council. Buckinghamshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Buckinghamshire
57 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
23 Feb 2024Farnham Common and Burnham Beeches
Buckinghamshire
Con HOLD
29 Jul 2023Denham
Buckinghamshire
Con HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BeaconsfieldConservative 40.9%vs Lib Dem 27.3%2021 Conservative 52.4%vs Independent 17.9%-60.5%
ClivedenConservative 34.2%vs Lib Dem 27.2%2021 Conservative 63.5%vs Labour 19.7%-41.7%
DenhamConservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 29.8%2021 Conservative 57.3%vs Independent 17.2%-37.5%
Farnham Common and Burnham BeechesConservative 37.3%vs Lib Dem 30.7%2021 Conservative 57.9%vs Lib Dem 31.3%-38.5%
Flackwell Heath, Little Marlow and Marlow South EastConservative 42.5%vs Lib Dem 22.6%2021 Conservative 61.6%vs Green 16.0%--
Gerrards CrossLib Dem 38.6%vs Conservative 37.4%2021 Conservative 71.0%vs Lib Dem 18.7%--
IverConservative 35.9%vs Lib Dem 28.9%2021 Conservative 50.1%vs Independent 21.6%-48.9%
MarlowConservative 39.4%vs Lib Dem 30.8%2021 Conservative 50.9%vs Lib Dem 20.2%-59.1%
Stoke Poges and WexhamConservative 42.3%vs Lib Dem 22.2%2021 Conservative 62.1%vs Labour 12.4%-47.5%
The Wooburns, Bourne End and HedsorConservative 37.0%vs Lib Dem 28.5%2021 Independent 54.8%vs Conservative 32.9%-18.6%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Beaconsfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Beaconsfield at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdDominic Grieve11.7%61.1%19.6%4.9% UKIP1.5%1.3%21,78270.0%
2015Con holdDominic Grieve11.4%63.2%7.4%13.8% UKIP4.2%-26,31171.1%+1.1
2017Con holdDominic Grieve21.4%65.3%7.9%2.9% UKIP2.5%-24,54372.3%+1.2
2019notionalConservative winnerJoy Morrissey 2019 MP, pre-review boundary9.9%55.5%0.0%-3.7%30.9%13,77272.8%+0.5
2024Con holdJoy Morrissey15.1%38.8%27.3%12.7% Ref4.1%2.0%5,45565.6%-7.2

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Beaconsfield

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Beaconsfield. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.