Constituency profile

Chesham and Amersham

South East · County constituency · Buckinghamshire borough

Sarah Green MP
Sitting MP

Sarah Green

Liberal Democrat

First elected June 2021

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
County constituency, Buckinghamshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCLD
Conservative 4/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5
EU referendum 2016
45.0% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -6.9pp below mean
Current outlook
Liberal Democrats +9.5pp
vs Conservative 28.6%
SouthernRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

About the Chesham and Amersham constituency

Chesham and Amersham is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Sarah Green (Liberal Democrat), first elected in June 2021. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 44.9% to 34.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,451 votes on a 72.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 38.1% and the Conservatives on 28.6%, a margin of 9.5 points.

Who lives in Chesham and Amersham? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
45.0%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
47.3%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
11.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
74.7%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
24.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
44.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
25.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
23.2%
UK average ~28%

How did Chesham and Amersham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 5,451 votes (10.1pp) · turnout 72.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Chesham and Amersham

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Chesham and Amersham within Buckinghamshire

Chesham and Amersham sits entirely within Buckinghamshire Council. Buckinghamshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Buckinghamshire
59 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
23 Feb 2024Hazlemere
Buckinghamshire
Con HOLD
29 Jul 2023Denham
Buckinghamshire
Con HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Amersham and Chesham BoisLib Dem 50.9%vs Conservative 30.8%2021 Conservative 41.0%vs Lib Dem 33.4%-54.6%
Chalfont St GilesLib Dem 42.2%vs Conservative 37.6%2021 Conservative 47.6%vs Green 18.6%-63.4%
Chalfont St PeterLib Dem 43.3%vs Conservative 37.8%2021 Conservative 63.4%vs Lib Dem 24.5%-39.5%
CheshamLib Dem 44.9%vs Conservative 31.2%2021 Conservative 42.1%vs Lib Dem 21.1%-51.5%
Chess ValleyLib Dem 46.0%vs Conservative 32.8%2021 Conservative 40.4%vs Lib Dem 24.5%-51.9%
Chiltern RidgesLib Dem 46.8%vs Conservative 31.8%2021 Conservative 41.5%vs Lib Dem 37.4%-52.3%
DenhamConservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 29.8%2021 Conservative 57.3%vs Independent 17.2%-37.5%
Gerrards CrossLib Dem 38.6%vs Conservative 37.4%2021 Conservative 71.0%vs Lib Dem 18.7%--
HazlemereConservative 38.2%vs Lib Dem 38.1%2021 Conservative 57.3%vs Independent 19.0%-50.9%
Little Chalfont and Amersham CommonLib Dem 45.8%vs Conservative 34.3%2021 Conservative 52.3%vs Lib Dem 25.1%-46.6%
Penn Wood and Old AmershamLib Dem 43.4%vs Conservative 37.3%2021 Conservative 62.2%vs Lib Dem 22.6%-51.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Chesham and Amersham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Chesham and Amersham at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdCheryl Gillan5.6%60.4%28.5%4.1% UKIP1.5%-16,71074.6%
2015Con holdCheryl Gillan12.7%59.1%9.0%13.7% UKIP5.5%-23,92072.7%-1.9
2017Con holdCheryl Gillan20.6%60.7%13.0%2.8% UKIP3.0%-22,14077.1%+4.4
2019notionalConservative winnerCheryl Gillan 2019 MP, pre-review boundary13.9%56.3%22.4%-4.8%2.6%18,21672.4%-4.7
2024LD gain from ConSarah Green6.4%34.8%44.8%9.8% Ref3.1%1.1%5,45172.7%+0.3

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Chesham and Amersham

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Chesham and Amersham. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.